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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

Oil Prices Steady as U.S.-Iran Truce Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge

Global oil prices stabilized on Friday, but Brent crude remained on track for a weekly decline of more than 8% as investors assessed the uncertain future of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and ongoing geopolitical risks in...

Asian Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Fall and Strong US Dollar Weighs on Markets

Asian stock markets rallied on Friday, with Japan and South Korea reaching record highs as easing tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, reducing global inflation...

US Stock Futures Slip After Wall Street Rally Fueled by US-Iran Deal and Chipmaker Surge

U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday evening, giving back some gains after a strong Wall Street rally driven by optimism surrounding a new U.S.-Iran agreement and a powerful surge in semiconductor stocks....

Canada, British Columbia Launch $5 Billion Infrastructure Partnership to Boost Housing, Transit, and Healthcare

Canada and British Columbia have unveiled a major long-term infrastructure partnership valued at more than $5 billion, aimed at accelerating housing development, expanding healthcare facilities, and improving public...

Japan Inflation Stays Below BOJ Target Despite Rate Hike and Rising Energy Cost Risks

Japans consumer inflation remained subdued in May, highlighting the ongoing impact of government energy subsidies even as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals concerns over future price pressures. The latest inflation data was...

Politics

Bolivia Nears End to 50-Day Crisis After Government Reaches Deal With Workers

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has reached a key agreement with the Bolivian Workers Confederation (COB), marking a significant step toward ending a nationwide crisis that has disrupted the country for nearly 50 days. The...

Trump Says Anthropic No Longer Seen as National Security Threat

U.S. President Donald Trump said he no longer views artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a national security threat, marking a significant shift from his stance just a week earlier. The comments came during an...

UN Clash Erupts as Israel Envoy Confronts UN Officials Over Blacklisting Reports

A tense confrontation unfolded at the United Nations headquarters in New York during an event marking the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict, as Israels ambassador to the U.N., Danny...

Meloni Slams Trump Over G7 Photo Claim as U.S.-Italy Relations Deteriorate

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has strongly rejected claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump that she begged him for a photo during the recent G7 summit, calling the remarks completely made up and expressing...

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Takes Effect Amid Rising Tensions Over U.S.-Iran Deal

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on Friday following days of intensified fighting in Lebanon that threatened to undermine the recently announced U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at ending broader Middle East...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

John Jumper Leaves Google DeepMind for Anthropic Amid Intensifying AI Talent Race

John Jumper, the Google DeepMind researcher who shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his groundbreaking work on the AlphaFold artificial intelligence system, has announced that he is leaving Google DeepMind to join...

Meta Seeks Legal Shield From Child-Harm Lawsuits Amid KOSA Talks

Meta Platforms is reportedly lobbying U.S. lawmakers to include legal protections for social media companies in the proposed Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), a move that could significantly impact thousands of lawsuits...

SpaceX Stock Slides After IPO Rally as Valuation Concerns Grow

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares extended their pullback on Thursday after a remarkable post-IPO rally, as investors locked in profits and questioned the companys lofty valuation. The stock, which dropped nearly 10% earlier in...

US Raises Concerns Over Possible ASML EUV Machine Transfer to China

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has reportedly raised concerns with Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML regarding the possible transfer of one of its advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to...

Google Gemini Co-Lead Noam Shazeer Leaves for OpenAI Amid AI Talent Race

Noam Shazeer, a vice president of engineering at Google and one of the leaders behind the companys Gemini artificial intelligence models, has announced that he is leaving Google to join OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. The...