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Paul Whiteley

Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge Past $100

Oil prices climbed sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 8% to $102.93 per barrel after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The move...

U.S. Futures Plunge as Iran Ceasefire Talks Collapse and Hormuz Blockade Looms

U.S. stock index futures dropped sharply Sunday evening after ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran broke down, raising fears of prolonged conflict and further disruptions to global energy markets. The...

Spain's Sanchez Visits China to Deepen Trade Ties Amid U.S. Tensions

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez arrived in China on Monday for his fourth visit in four years, reinforcing Spains commitment to an independent foreign policy that has increasingly put him at odds with U.S. President...

BCA Research Warns U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Could Collapse, Maintains Cautious Equity Outlook

BCA Research is cautiously optimistic about the recently announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire but is warning investors that the truce remains highly unstable. The firms chief geopolitical strategist, Matt Gertken, puts the odds...

U.S. Natural Gas Market Faces Short-Term Pressure but Long-Term Demand Surge

Wall Street analysts remain divided on the U.S. natural gas outlook, citing near-term price weakness alongside robust long-term demand fundamentals driven by LNG exports and growing global power consumption. Benchmark...

Politics

Peru Presidential Election 2025: Lopez Aliaga Leads Early Results

Early official vote counts from Perus presidential election reveal that right-leaning candidate Rafael Lopez Aliaga is currently ahead of the competition, securing 23.4% of the vote. With only 5% of ballots tallied so far,...

Trump Dismisses Iran Talks, Orders Strait of Hormuz Blockade

President Donald Trump signaled indifference toward renewed diplomacy with Iran on Sunday, telling reporters at Joint Base Andrews, I dont care if they come back or not, if they dont come back, were fine. His remarks...

Swalwell Drops California Governor Bid Amid Sexual Assault Allegations

California Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell has suspended his gubernatorial campaign following sexual assault allegations and mounting pressure from fellow lawmakers and former staff members to resign from Congress...

U.S. Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Sends Oil Tankers Into Retreat

Oil tankers are diverting away from the Strait of Hormuz as the United States prepares to enforce a naval blockade beginning Monday morning, following the collapse of weekend peace negotiations between Washington and...

Trump Blasts Pope Leo as "Weak" Amid Foreign Policy and Immigration Disputes

United States President Donald Trump launched a sharp public attack against Pope Leo on Sunday evening, branding the Catholic Churchs leader as weak on crime and terrible when it comes to foreign policy. The outburst came...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

OpenAI Addresses Security Vulnerability in macOS App Certification Process

OpenAI disclosed a security concern on Friday involving a third-party developer tool known as Axios, which is connected to the process used to verify the authenticity of its macOS applications. The company confirmed it has...

San Francisco Suspect Arrested After Molotov Cocktail Attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Home

San Francisco police arrested a 20-year-old suspect Friday following a pre-dawn attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans residence in the citys North Beach neighborhood. According to the San Francisco Police Department, an...

SanDisk Joins Nasdaq-100, Replacing Atlassian on April 20

Nasdaq Inc. confirmed late Friday that SanDisk Corporation will enter the Nasdaq-100 Index, taking the spot previously held by Atlassian Corp Plc when markets open on Monday, April 20, 2026. The change signals a broader...

TSMC Posts Strong Q1 2025 Revenue, Riding AI Chip Demand Wave

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the worlds leading contract chipmaker, has reported first-quarter revenue of T$1.134 trillion (approximately $35.71 billion USD), surpassing analyst expectations and...

Lumentum Holdings Rides AI Wave With Order Book Filled Through 2028

Lumentum Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: LITE) is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully booked through 2028, according to a Bloomberg report published Thursday. The...
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