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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

European Stocks Edge Higher as Bond Yields Ease

European stocks moved modestly higher on Thursday, attempting to recover from a sharp weekly sell-off as easing global bond yields and cautious Federal Reserve commentary provided some relief to risk assets. The...

India Services PMI Rises to 54.1 as Hiring Accelerates

Indias services sector expanded at a slightly faster pace in August, although weak growth in new business kept activity close to its lowest levels in more than four years, according to a private-sector survey. The HSBC...

China Services PMI Beats Forecasts as Domestic Demand Improves

Chinas services sector expanded at a faster pace in August, as stronger business activity, rising new orders and continued employment growth pointed to a modest improvement in domestic demand. The RatingDog Services PMI...

Australia Trade Surplus Beats Forecasts in July as Exports Fall

Australias trade surplus exceeded market expectations in July, although it narrowed from the previous month as exports declined faster than imports, according to data released Thursday by the Australian Bureau of...

Asian Currencies Rise as Yen Surges on BOJ Rate Hike Bets

Asian currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, led by a sharp rally in the Japanese yen as traders increased bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike and remained alert to possible currency intervention....

Politics

Lula Runs Cautious Brazil Election Campaign as Bolsonaro Narrows Poll Gap

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is taking an unusually cautious approach to his re-election campaign ahead of Brazils October election, as right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro closes the gap in opinion polls....

Texas Republicans Turn Against AI Data Centers as Election Backlash Grows

Texas Republicans are increasingly pushing for tougher AI data center regulations, highlighting a growing divide within the party as local opposition becomes a major issue ahead of the November elections. Texas Governor...

Pacific Islands Forum Seeks Unified Condemnation of China Missile Test

Pacific Islands Forum chair Surangel Whipps Jr. said Thursday he hopes the 18-member regional bloc can reach consensus on condemning Chinas recent ballistic missile test in the Pacific, as tensions between Beijing and...

Iran War Civilian Toll Rises After U.S. Strikes Hit Wedding

The renewed escalation of the Iran war has intensified concerns over civilian casualties after Iranian officials said 18 people were killed in the latest U.S. strikes, including four at a wedding near the Strait of Hormuz....

Maduro Seeks Dismissal of US Drug Trafficking Charges

Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has asked a U.S. federal judge to dismiss drug trafficking charges against him, arguing that he is protected from prosecution by head-of-state immunity. Maduros lawyer, Barry...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Deutsche Telekom Shares Rise as Elliott Pushes Against T-Mobile Merger

Deutsche Telekom shares climbed on Thursday after reports that activist investor Elliott Investment Management had accumulated a significant stake in the German telecom giant and was pushing the company to reconsider a...

Thomson Reuters C-Track Cyberattack Hits Courts Across U.S. and Canada

A Thomson Reuters unit has disclosed a cybersecurity incident involving its C-Track court case management platform, affecting court systems across 11 U.S. states, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Canada. The company detected...

ByteDance Secures $29.6 Billion Loan to Boost AI Investment

ByteDance, the Chinese technology giant behind TikTok, has secured a $29.6 billion loan as it ramps up spending on artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar...

Microsoft to Reveal Azure Revenue in Major Reporting Shake-Up

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) plans to begin reporting standalone quarterly revenue for its Azure cloud business, giving investors greater visibility into one of the technology giants fastest-growing operations. The...

MongoDB Stock Sinks 14% as Atlas Growth Misses Expectations

MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB) shares plunged more than 14% in premarket trading Wednesday despite stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2027 results, as investors focused on the lack of growth acceleration in the companys...