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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

EU Delays Mercosur Free Trade Agreement Signing Amid Ukraine War Funding Talks

The European Union has decided to delay the formal signing of its long-anticipated free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, as EU leaders convened in Brussels to prioritize discussions on funding Ukraines war effort....

Precious Metals Rally as Silver and Platinum Outperform on Rate Cut Bets

Gold prices edged slightly lower in Asian trading on Friday but were still on track to post modest weekly gains, as strong safe-haven demand continued to support the precious metals market. At the same time, silver and...

Oil Prices Steady in Asia but Headed for Weekly Loss on Supply Glut Concerns

Oil prices were mostly steady during Asian trading on Friday, but both major benchmarks were still on track to record a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent concerns over a global supply glut continued to...

New Zealand Business Confidence Hits 30-Year High as Economic Outlook Improves

New Zealands business confidence surged sharply in December, reaching its highest level in three decades, according to the latest ANZ Bank Business Outlook survey released on Friday. The data highlights growing optimism...

BOJ Poised for Historic Rate Hike as Japan Signals Shift Toward Monetary Normalization

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to raise interest rates to a three-decade high, marking another milestone in its gradual exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Friday,...

Politics

U.S. and China Push for Ceasefire as Thailand–Cambodia Border Clashes Escalate

China and the United States are intensifying separate diplomatic efforts to revive a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, as Southeast Asian leaders prepare for a crucial ASEAN meeting aimed at addressing the worst...

Syria, Kurds and U.S. Race to Show Progress on SDF Integration Deal

Syrian, Kurdish and U.S. officials are intensifying diplomatic efforts ahead of a year-end deadline to demonstrate progress on a long-stalled agreement to integrate Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian state, according to...

Putin Signals Possible Peace or Continued War in Ukraine at Major Year-End Address

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to send a significant signal to the United States and European powers regarding the future of the Ukraine war when he speaks at his annual end-of-year news conference on Friday....

Trump Administration Reviews Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Marking Major Shift in U.S. AI Export Policy

The U.S. government under President Donald Trump has launched a formal review that could pave the way for the first-ever shipments of Nvidias H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, according to multiple sources...

Trump Signs Order to Ease Federal Marijuana Rules, Signaling Major Policy Shift

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to loosen regulations on marijuana, a move that could mark one of the most significant changes in U.S. cannabis policy in decades. The...

Science

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Technology

TikTok U.S. Deal Advances as ByteDance Signs Binding Joint Venture Agreement

TikTok has taken a major step toward securing its future in the United States after its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, announced it has signed binding agreements with three major investors to form a new joint venture...

Oracle Stock Surges After Hours on TikTok Deal Optimism and OpenAI Fundraising Buzz

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) shares surged sharply in extended trading on Thursday, reflecting renewed investor optimism fueled by reports of a potential U.S. TikTok transaction and fresh fundraising discussions...

Apple Opens iPhone to Alternative App Stores in Japan Under New Competition Law

Apple has announced a major shift in its App Store policies in Japan, opening iPhones and other Apple devices to alternative app stores in order to comply with new competition laws aimed at reshaping the countrys...

Micron Technology Forecasts Surge in Revenue and Earnings on AI-Driven Memory Demand

Micron Technology delivered record first-quarter results and issued a bullish forecast for the current quarter, driven by rising memory prices and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence workloads. The upbeat...

Oracle Stock Slides After Blue Owl Exit Report, Company Says Michigan Data Center Talks Remain on Track

Oracle shares fell more than 4% on Wednesday after a Financial Times report claimed that Blue Owl Capital, Oracles largest U.S. data center partner, decided not to support a planned $10 billion data center project in...