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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

Iran War Fallout: How Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Egypt Are Struggling With Rising Energy Costs

Sri Lankas tourism industry was hoping 2025 would finally mark a full recovery from years of economic hardship. Instead, the outbreak of war involving Iran sent oil prices surging 40%, forcing the government to raise fuel...

Italy's Bond Market Under Pressure as Middle East Conflict Exposes Economic Fragility

Italys financial vulnerabilities have come into sharp focus amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with surging energy costs and mounting political uncertainty weighing heavily on Italian government bonds. In March,...

Asia FX Slides as Dollar Surges Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions and Inflation Fears

Asian currencies broadly declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar attracted safe-haven demand following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and mounting concerns over a potential American blockade of Iranian ports....

Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Imposes Blockade on Iranian Shipping Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions

Global financial markets were rattled Monday after the United States announced a blockade on Iranian shipping following the breakdown of weekend peace negotiations. The decision has renewed fears over Middle East energy...

Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further

South Koreas Bank of Korea governor nominee, Shin Hyun-song, signaled on Monday that policymakers stand ready to intervene should the Korean won experience excessive depreciation. In written statements submitted to...

Politics

U.S. Blockade of Iran Begins as Nuclear Talks Collapse in Islamabad

Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply escalated after weekend diplomatic talks in Islamabad ended without an agreement, prompting Washington to announce a full naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal...

U.S., Australia, and Philippines Conduct Joint South China Sea Military Drills Amid Rising Tensions With China

The United States, Australia, and the Philippines wrapped up their second trilateral maritime exercises of 2025 in the South China Sea, reinforcing their collective commitment to freedom of navigation and regional security...

South Korea and Poland Forge Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Centered on Defence

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk formally elevated bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership on Monday, placing defence cooperation at the heart of the upgraded...

Taiwan Insists Government Must Lead Cross-Strait Engagement Amid China's New Incentives

Taiwans top security official has made clear that any response to Chinas latest proposed trade and tourism measures must be government-led, not driven by opposition party diplomacy. National Security Bureau chief Tsai...

Spain's Sanchez Urges China to Take Greater Global Leadership Role During Beijing Visit

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called on China to assume a more meaningful role in addressing pressing global challenges, including climate change, international security, defense, and the fight against inequality....

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

AI Deradicalization Tools: How Chatbots Could Help Combat Violent Extremism Online

As artificial intelligence platforms become more deeply embedded in daily life, concerns about their role in enabling dangerous behavior continue to grow. A New Zealand startup is now developing a groundbreaking tool that...

Meta Is Building an AI Version of Mark Zuckerberg to Interact With Employees

Meta Platforms is reportedly developing a photorealistic artificial intelligence version of its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, designed to engage directly with employees on his behalf. According to the Financial Times, which cited...

TSMC Posts Record Q1 2026 Profits Driven by Surging AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is on track to deliver its fourth straight quarter of record-breaking earnings, with analysts forecasting a 50% jump in net profit for the first quarter of 2026. The surge is...

OpenAI Addresses Security Vulnerability in macOS App Certification Process

OpenAI disclosed a security concern on Friday involving a third-party developer tool known as Axios, which is connected to the process used to verify the authenticity of its macOS applications. The company confirmed it has...

San Francisco Suspect Arrested After Molotov Cocktail Attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Home

San Francisco police arrested a 20-year-old suspect Friday following a pre-dawn attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans residence in the citys North Beach neighborhood. According to the San Francisco Police Department, an...