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Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
My research interests involve examining the nature & significance of political participation, particularly electoral participation, & also in understanding the causes & effects of public opinion on politics.

Global Geopolitics Series

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Nov 19, 2024 07:46 am UTC| Insights & Views

Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed...

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

Oct 25, 2024 12:16 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House. A poll of polls, which combines...

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

Jun 03, 2024 11:05 am UTC| Politics

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up pace is whether Rishi Sunak can do anything over the next few weeks to...

US under Trump Series

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

May 21, 2024 05:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden...

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

Mar 28, 2024 12:04 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the presidential campaign. One source of polarisation that is rarely...

Biden's not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

Jan 11, 2024 03:30 am UTC| Economy Politics

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw that support. The chart below shows that relationship between consumer...

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don't have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Dec 26, 2023 23:08 pm UTC| Politics

Recent polling suggests that Joe Bidens policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An #AbandonBiden campaign was launched by Muslim voters in Minnesota in...

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Economy

ECB's Kocher Says No Inflation Spillover Yet From Iran Conflict, Warns Risks Remain

The European Central Bank (ECB) does not currently see evidence that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is triggering broader inflationary pressures across the euro area, although policymakers remain alert to potential...

Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data eased expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike, although escalating tensions in the Middle East...

Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment

Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges on Wednesday as investors remained cautious over escalating tensions in the Middle East and weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth, despite a softer U.S. dollar following...

China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline

Chinas new home prices continued to decline in June, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing the countrys property market despite signs that the pace of deterioration is easing. Official data released by the National...

US Inflation Expected to Ease in June, but Fed Rate Hike Risks Persist Amid Middle East Tensions

U.S. consumer inflation likely eased in June, but economists say the slowdown may provide little relief for households or significantly reduce the likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year,...

Politics

Trump ICC Sanctions Challenged as Advocacy Groups File Free Speech Lawsuit

Two U.S.-based advocacy organizations have filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, arguing that sanctions targeting the International Criminal Court (ICC) violate First Amendment free speech protections. The...

US Military Launches New Strikes on Iran, Targets Threats to Strait of Hormuz Shipping

The U.S. military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Wednesday, marking another escalation in tensions across the Middle East. According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the military operation began at...

Ukraine, EU Sign Landmark Drone Deal to Boost Defense Production

Ukraine and the European Union have signed a landmark drone cooperation agreement aimed at combining Ukraines battlefield expertise with Europes industrial strength to accelerate drone manufacturing and strengthen regional...

Zelenskiy Cabinet Reshuffle Puts Ukraine Defense Minister Fedorov’s Future in Focus

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy prepares another cabinet reshuffle, the future of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has emerged as one of the biggest questions, with potential implications for Ukraines war...

Trump Administration Launches AI Cybersecurity Partnership to Protect Critical Infrastructure

The Trump administration is launching a new initiative to strengthen U.S. cybersecurity by bringing together leading artificial intelligence developers and operators of critical infrastructure to identify and address...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Apple Intelligence Cleared for China as Alibaba and Baidu AI Power iPhone Features

Apple has moved a step closer to launching Apple Intelligence in China after the countrys cyberspace regulator officially registered the companys on-device generative AI service for use on iPhones. The approval marks a...

Alibaba Stock Jumps as China Approves Apple Intelligence Powered by Qwen AI

Alibaba Group shares climbed about 5% in U.S. premarket trading on Wednesday after Chinese regulators approved Apples on-device artificial intelligence platform for launch in China, marking a major step for the iPhone...

ASML Raises 2026 Outlook as AI Chip Demand Lifts Q2 Earnings

ASML Holding (AS: ASML) reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2026 earnings on Wednesday, fueled by robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chip manufacturing equipment and higher sales from its installed...

Arm Stock Falls After HSBC Downgrade, Citing Limited Near-Term AI Upside

Arm Holdings shares came under pressure after HSBC downgraded the semiconductor designer to hold from buy,arguing that the companys recent rally has already priced in much of its long-term artificial intelligence (AI)...

SK Hynix Stock Soars as AI Memory Demand Outlook Fuels Chip Rally

SK Hynix shares surged nearly 13% in Seoul on Wednesday, leading a broad rally in South Korean semiconductor stocks as easing U.S. inflation and renewed optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) memory demand boosted...