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David McMillan

Professor in Finance, University of Stirling
I obtained a PhD from the University of Swansea in 1998. I have held positions in the Universities of Aberdeen, Durham and St Andrews. My research focuses on:

* Over-Arching Theme of Empirical Finance: Especially time-series modelling and the investigation of non-linear dynamics within data. Work includes the use of data on stock markets, futures and forward markets, interest rates and exchange rates (nominal and real). Do non-linear models provide better forecasts, and the implication for efficiency, both in terms of profit making, and whether prices reflect their fair value, for example, the relationship between prices and dividends, and arbitrage relationship in spot and future and interest rate dynamics.

* Modelling and Forecasting Volatility and Realised Volatility: especially the use of intra-day data and the implications for risk management and whether academic models provide superior performance in the areas of hedging and VaR calculation.

* Predicting Stock Returns and the Relationship between Macroeconomic and Financial Data: examining the nature of the predictive equation and its implications for asset pricing. What economic variables help explain predictability.

UK bonds have hit a 25-year high – here's what that means for the economy

Oct 07, 2023 14:21 pm UTC| Economy

Its been more than a year since the UK economy was thrown into crisis after then-prime minister Liz Truss suggested making a wealth of unfunded tax cuts in her September 2022 mini-budget. But a recent bond market sell-off...

UK bonds are in meltdown again – what does that mean for pensions?

May 29, 2023 05:10 am UTC| Economy

UK government debt prices have taken an unnerving journey south in the past few days. The closely watched ten-year bond has now hit a yield of 4.3%, taking it within a fraction of the level that caused a crisis in autumn...

Inflation: there's a vital way to reduce it that everyone overlooks – raise productivity

May 28, 2022 10:57 am UTC| Economy

Inflation has become one of the great issues of our times. The UKs is the highest in the G7, weighing in at 9% a year according to the most recent figures on consumer price inflation. When you look at the other common...

Economy

China Hits Back with 125% Tariffs as US Trade War Escalates

China escalated its trade war with the U.S. on Friday by raising tariffs on American imports to 125%, retaliating against President Donald Trumps move to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%. This tit-for-tat intensifies...

Global Markets Rebound as Trump Eases Tariffs, TSX and Wall Street Surge

Canadas main stock index rebounded sharply Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trumps unexpected tariff rollback eased fears of a global trade war. The Toronto Stock Exchanges SP/TSX Composite Index surged 1,220 points,...

Trump Pauses Tariffs Amid Market Turmoil, Keeps Pressure on China

In a dramatic shift, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause on sweeping new tariffs targeting dozens of countries, calming financial markets after days of turmoil. The move came less than 24 hours after...

U.S. and Vietnam Begin Trade Talks After Tariff Pause

The United States and Vietnam have officially agreed to begin negotiations on a new trade agreement, the Vietnamese government announced Thursday. The development comes just hours after the U.S. temporarily halted the...

Asian Chip Stocks Surge as U.S. Suspends Tariffs, Eases Trade Tensions

Asian semiconductor stocks rallied on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trumps announcement of a 90-day suspension of certain tariffs, offering relief amid ongoing trade tensions. The move reduced newly imposed...

Politics

Pennsylvania Man Charged for Online Threats Against Trump and ICE Agents

A Pennsylvania man has been federally charged for making online threats to assassinate President Donald Trump and immigration agents, the U.S. Department of Justice announced Friday. Shawn Monper, 32, of Butler,...

Trump Urges Congress to Make Daylight Saving Time Permanent

President Donald Trump has renewed calls for Congress to make daylight saving time (DST) permanent, urging lawmakers to end the long-standing practice of switching clocks twice a year. His comments follow a recent...

Judge Blocks Trump-Era Funding Freeze Over Maine’s Transgender Sports Policy

A federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration unlawfully froze federal school lunch funding to Maine over the states refusal to ban transgender women from participating in womens sports. U.S. District Judge John...

Trump Says Physical and Cognitive Exam Went Well, Full Results Expected Sunday

President Donald Trump, who became the oldest U.S. president in January, underwent his first physical exam of his second term on Friday at Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. The 78-year-old said the checkup...

IMF Approves $20 Billion Loan Deal for Argentina Amid Economic Crisis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a 48-month, $20 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Argentina, with an immediate disbursement of $12 billion. The decision, announced Friday, is aimed at helping the...

Science

Kennedy Sets September Deadline to Uncover Autism Causes Amid Controversy

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a bold plan to identify the cause of autism by September 2025. Speaking at a cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump, Kennedy declared a global...

AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi Gets US Approval for Bladder Cancer Treatment

AstraZenecas drug Imfinzi (NASDAQ: AZN) has received U.S. approval to treat adult patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer, a significant advancement in cancer therapy. The approval allows Imfinzi to be used in...

Sanofi’s New Hemophilia Drug Qfitlia Gains FDA Approval with Breakthrough Bimonthly Dosing

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Qfitlia, a groundbreaking hemophilia treatment by French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY). Designed for patients aged 12 and older with hemophilia A or B,...

FDA Vaccine Chief Peter Marks Resigns Amid Controversy Over Transparency

Peter Marks, the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) top vaccine official, has resigned after reportedly being forced out by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), according to The Wall Street Journal....

Museums have tons of data, and AI could make it more accessible − but standardizing and organizing it across fields won’t be easy

Ice cores in freezers, dinosaurs on display, fish in jars, birds in boxes, human remains and ancient artifacts from long gone civilizations that few people ever see museum collections are filled with all this and more....

Technology

Ireland Probes X Over Use of EU User Data for AI Training

Irelands Data Protection Commission (DPC) has launched an investigation into X, formerly known as Twitter, over its use of personal data from EU users to train its generative AI model, Grok. As the lead regulator for X...

Amazon Delays Kuiper Satellite Launch Due to Weather Conditions

Amazons planned launch of its first 27 Kuiper internet satellites was postponed on Wednesday due to unfavorable weather, according to the launch provider, United Launch Alliance (ULA). Project Kuiper, Amazons ambitious...

Google Cuts Jobs in Android and Pixel Teams Amid AI Shift

Alphabets Google has laid off hundreds of employees in its Platforms and Devices division, which includes key products like the Android OS, Pixel smartphones, and the Chrome browser, according to a report by The...

US Senators Question Microsoft and Google Over AI Cloud Partnerships

Two Democratic U.S. senators are pressing Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for transparency over their cloud computing partnerships with leading artificial intelligence firms. Senators Elizabeth Warren of...

Telegram Fined $80K by Moscow Court for Extremist Content Refusal

A Moscow court has fined Telegram Messenger Inc. 7 million roubles (approximately $80,000) for refusing to remove content allegedly promoting extremist activities, according to Russian state news agency TASS. Court...