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David McMillan

Professor in Finance, University of Stirling
I obtained a PhD from the University of Swansea in 1998. I have held positions in the Universities of Aberdeen, Durham and St Andrews. My research focuses on:

* Over-Arching Theme of Empirical Finance: Especially time-series modelling and the investigation of non-linear dynamics within data. Work includes the use of data on stock markets, futures and forward markets, interest rates and exchange rates (nominal and real). Do non-linear models provide better forecasts, and the implication for efficiency, both in terms of profit making, and whether prices reflect their fair value, for example, the relationship between prices and dividends, and arbitrage relationship in spot and future and interest rate dynamics.

* Modelling and Forecasting Volatility and Realised Volatility: especially the use of intra-day data and the implications for risk management and whether academic models provide superior performance in the areas of hedging and VaR calculation.

* Predicting Stock Returns and the Relationship between Macroeconomic and Financial Data: examining the nature of the predictive equation and its implications for asset pricing. What economic variables help explain predictability.

UK bonds have hit a 25-year high – here's what that means for the economy

Oct 07, 2023 14:21 pm UTC| Economy

Its been more than a year since the UK economy was thrown into crisis after then-prime minister Liz Truss suggested making a wealth of unfunded tax cuts in her September 2022 mini-budget. But a recent bond market sell-off...

UK bonds are in meltdown again – what does that mean for pensions?

May 29, 2023 05:10 am UTC| Economy

UK government debt prices have taken an unnerving journey south in the past few days. The closely watched ten-year bond has now hit a yield of 4.3%, taking it within a fraction of the level that caused a crisis in autumn...

Inflation: there's a vital way to reduce it that everyone overlooks – raise productivity

May 28, 2022 10:57 am UTC| Economy

Inflation has become one of the great issues of our times. The UKs is the highest in the G7, weighing in at 9% a year according to the most recent figures on consumer price inflation. When you look at the other common...

Economy

Asian Technology and Chipmaking Stocks Slide as AI Spending Concerns Shake Markets

Asian technology and chipmaking stocks fell sharply on Monday as investor caution intensified over growing uncertainties surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) spending and its impact on future earnings. The sell-off...

China’s November Economic Data Signals Slowing Industrial Output and Weak Consumer Demand

Chinas economic momentum showed further signs of strain in November as key indicators pointed to slower growth in industrial output and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in consumer spending, according to official data...

Oil Prices Rebound as U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Offset Oversupply Concerns

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, recovering part of last weeks sharp decline, as rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions. These worries...

Dollar Struggles as Markets Eye Key Central Bank Decisions and Global Rate Outlooks

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Monday, extending losses near a two-month low, while the euro and British pound held relatively steady as investors awaited a series of critical central bank decisions this week....

Asian Stocks Slide as Central Bank Decisions and Key Data Keep Investors Cautious

Asian stock markets opened the week lower as investors reduced risk exposure amid thin year-end liquidity, looming central bank decisions, and a packed schedule of delayed economic data releases. Early Monday trading saw...

Politics

Special Prosecutor Alleges Yoon Suk Yeol Sought North Korea Provocation to Justify Martial Law

A South Korean special prosecutor has accused former President Yoon Suk Yeol of attempting to provoke North Korea into an armed confrontation as part of an alleged plot to justify the declaration of martial law in December...

Supporters Gather Ahead of Verdict in Jimmy Lai’s Landmark Hong Kong National Security Trial

Supporters of Hong Kong democracy activist and media tycoon Jimmy Lai queued overnight outside the citys High Court on Monday as anticipation grew ahead of the verdict in his landmark national security trial, a case that...

Korea Zinc Plans $6.78 Billion U.S. Smelter Investment With Government Partnership

Korea Zincs board is set to convene on Monday to vote on a major overseas investment plan that could significantly strengthen the supply chain for critical minerals in the United States. According to a source familiar with...

Hong Kong Democratic Party Disbands After Member Vote Amid Security Crackdown

Hong Kongs last major opposition party, the Democratic Party, has voted to disband, marking a significant moment in the citys political history and underscoring the impact of Chinas national security crackdown on liberal...

Ukraine’s NATO Concession Unlikely to Shift Peace Talks, Experts Say

Ukraines recent offer to abandon its long-standing ambition to join NATO is unlikely to have a major impact on ongoing peace talks with Russia, according to several foreign policy and security experts. During discussions...

Science

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Trump and Merck KGaA Partner to Slash IVF Drug Costs and Expand Fertility Coverage

U.S. President Donald Trump and German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA have announced a groundbreaking deal aimed at lowering the cost of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments while boosting access to fertility care in...

Technology

iRobot Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Amid Rising Competition and Tariff Pressures

iRobot, the company behind the popular Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States as it prepares to go private through an acquisition by Picea Robotics, its primary...

Nvidia Weighs Expanding H200 AI Chip Production as China Demand Surges

Nvidia is evaluating whether to expand production capacity for its powerful H200 artificial intelligence chips after demand from Chinese customers significantly exceeded current supply, according to multiple sources...

SpaceX Begins IPO Preparations as Wall Street Banks Line Up for Advisory Roles

SpaceX has reportedly begun the early stages of preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO), marking a significant milestone for the private aerospace company founded by Elon Musk. According to a report from...

SpaceX Insider Share Sale Values Company Near $800 Billion Amid IPO Speculation

SpaceX, the aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, has reportedly authorized an insider share sale that places its valuation at approximately $800 billion, according to a Bloomberg News report published Friday. The move...

Mizuho Raises Broadcom Price Target to $450 on Surging AI Chip Demand

Mizuho Securities has raised its price target on Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), highlighting accelerating momentum in the companys artificial intelligence business and a rapidly expanding long-term backlog. The brokerage...