Market Roundup
- US NY Fed Manufacturing Feb 7.78, f/c 8.5, 9.95-prev
- US NAHB Housing Market Indx Feb 55, f/c 58, 57-prev
- CA Securities Cdns CAD MM Dec +13.89b, +1.83b-prev
- CA Securities Foreign CAD MM Dec -13.55b, +4.30b-prev
- Greece intends to ask for extension of loan agreement tomorrow (Source)
- Fed's Plosser slams 'audit the Fed' bill as political interference policy says 12 regional Fed banks safeguard against too much power in Washington, Wall Street
- Fed's Plosser weak oil prices, and muted U.S. inflation, temporary, oil's pressure on US inflation transitory; Fed must look through it
- ECB's Noyer ECB convinced inflation will return to target under QE, says Greek economy must become more competitive concerned reforms will be dropped
- Greek bank withdrawals pick up but below peak levels (Greek banking sources)
- Germany's Schaeuble it is still open whether Greece even wants a programme or not, if Greece doesn't want to stick w/the programme we don't have to extend it
- France's Sapin solution to Greek deal mainly about wording, there is consensus w/Greece on issues such as debt, no haircut
- Greek PM confident a solution will be found provided everyone wants it
- Greek PM says relationship of trust b/w govt & people will not be violated in favor of lenders' interests, don't aim for clash want a viable solution
- SNB's Jordan Swiss franc still too strong, SNB may intervene if necessary
- Italy bank lending to households & non-financials was down 1.8% in Jan
- Fonterra's GDT price index rises 10.1% w/an avg selling price of USD 3,366 per tonne
- Japan's Takahashi up to BOJ to decide whether or not to ease policy further, Japan should not worry about ST slowdown in inflation due to falling oil prices
- China to overtake US as world's largest oil consumer by 2035 (BP)
- U.S. says 'proxy war' with Russia not in Ukraine's interest
- No Significant Data
- Japan Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
- 2200 ET/0300 GMT Japan Bank of Japan Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY climbed back above the 119.00 level despite disappointing US housing data. The pair left behind the 200- and 100-hour SMAs and at the time of writing is trading at 119.327. Immediate resistance is at 119.60 (Feb 10 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 118.27 (Feb 16 low) and 118.00. Option expiries for Wed Feb 18th: 117.90-118.00 (1.9BLN), 118.50 (1.4BLN) 119.00 (828M), 119.50 (2.2BLN)
USD/CAD: CAD hit a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, helped by the price of crude oil nearing a 2015 peak. CAD being less overvalued at current levels, near-term consolidation can be expected. Intraday support at 1.2355/60 may hold for now but we would also expect firm resistance intraday around 1.2445/50.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1412, up 0.57% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1449 and low at 1.1322. The pair has drifted down a bit on chatter about Greece. The euro is likely to benefit from any agreement between Greek and euro zone negotiators. Traders are waiting for further data ahead and ECB QE to come around. Supports are at 1.1350 and 1.1320, resistances are at 1.1450, 1.1470 and 1.1500.
GBP/USD: Trading has been range-bound and steady on Tuesday as CPI continues to slide. GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.53 range. On Wednesday, we could see some movement from GBP/USD with the release of three key events - the Federal Reserve minutes, Building Permits and PPI. Option expiries for Wed Feb 18th: 1.5350 (200M). EUR/GBP: 0.7500 (412M)
AUD/NZD: NZD rose from 0.7500 to 0.7555, also choppy. The bi-monthly dairy auction resulted in another decent price rise for whole milk powder (13%), probably influenced by lower supply amid the NZ drought. Despite that, AUD/NZD rose slightly, from 1.0350 to 1.0395, suggesting the milk result was already priced in.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF extended gains and reached its highest level since the SNB removed the EUR/CHF floor on Jan 15, as comments from Jordan helped to weaken the franc. SNB said it will continue to take the exchange rate into consideration when formulating its monetary policy. Even though USD/CHF failed at a first attempt, it finally broke above the 0.9365 area and reached a high of 0.9374 before easing slightly. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9370, recording a 0.64% daily gain. Option expiries for Wed Feb 18th: 0.9385 (200M), 0.9500 (463M)
EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7428 with a high of 0.7444 and a low of 0.7375. The pair remains within a bearish trend below 0.7712/67. In the bear term, 0.7440 acts as resistance ahead of 0.7840. 0.7380/70 and yearly lows come as near term support.
