Market Roundup
- US CPI MM, SA Jan -0.7%, f/c -0.6%, -0.30%-prev
- US CPI YY, NSA Jan -0.1%, f/c -0.1%, 0.80%-prev
- US Core CPI MM, SA Jan 0.2%, f/c 0.1%, 0.10%-prev
- US Core CPI YY, NSA Jan 1.6%, f/c 1.6%, 1.60%-prev
- US CPI Index, NSA Jan 233.71, f/c 233.7, 234.81-prev
- US Core CPI Index, SA Jan 239.87, 239.45-prev
- US Real Weekly Earnings MM Jan 1.2%, f/c 0.3%, 0.10%-prev
- US Durable Goods Jan 2.8%, f/c 1.7%, -3.70%-prev
- US Durables Ex-Transport Jan 0.3%, f/c 0.5%, -0.90%-prev
- US Durables Ex-Defense MM Jan 3%, -3.30% -prev
- US Nondefense Ex-Air Jan 0.6%, f/c 0.3%, -0.70%-prev
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 313k, f/c 290k, 282k-prev
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 294.5k, 283k-prev
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.401m, f/c 2.390m, 2.422m-prev
- US Monthly Home Price MM Dec 0.8%, 0.70%-prev
- US Monthly Home Price YY Dec 5.4%, -prev
- US Monthly Home Price Index MM Dec 218.6,216.80-prev
- US KC Fed Manufacturing Feb 5, -2-prev
- US KC Fed Composite Index Feb 1, 3-prev
- US Cleveland Fed CPI Jan 0.2%, 0.20%-prev
- CA CPI Inflation MM Jan -0.2%, f/c -0.4%, -0.70%-prev
- CA CPI Inflation YY Jan 1%, f/c 0.7%, 1.50%-prev
- CA CPI BoC Core YY Jan 2.2%, f/c 2.1%, 2.20%-prev
- CA CPI BoC Core MM Jan 0.2%, f/c 0.1%, -0.30% -prev
- MX Trade Balance, $ Jan -3.248b, f/c -3.151b, 0.254b-prev
- MX Trade Balance SA Jan -1.781b, -0.011b-prev
- BR IGP-M Inflation Index Feb 0.27%, f/c 0.29%, 0.76%-prev
- BR Unemployment Rate Jan 5.3%, f/c 5%, 4.30%-prev
- Reuters Poll-Just over half of analysts see ECB's QE plan pushing inflation to target
- Reuters Poll 33/61 economists see first BOE rate hike by Q4 2015
- Reuters Poll Bk of Canada to hold fire on interest rates next week, not seen hiking rates until Q1 '16
- Fed's Fisher our sails are quite full in the US, growth of 2.5% is very good, Fed doesn't spend too much time deliberating on stronger dollar
- Fed's Fisher says markets have overshot, we are in for a correction at some point, would rather tighten sooner & slower than later & sharper we cannot slam on the brakes
- Fed's Bullard sees spring price rebound, summer rate hike, US inflation pretty stable (CNBC)
- Fed's Bullard concerned low-yield mkts will wake up abruptly reprice for rate hike (Reuters)
- Fed's Williams sees first rate rise in summer or fall, need to remove some accommodation before we get to full employment/2% inflation
- BOE's Shafik next Bank of England move likely to be a rate hike
- Bundesbank's Dombret warns of rising herd mentality in finance
- Bundesbank chief criticizes EU approach to France on deficit (Maerkische Allgemeine Zeitung)
- Austria, France press ahead with financial transaction tax plans
- Turkey PM's office denies rumors of Babacan, Basci resignations
- Fitch: Mexican corporate liquidity remains sound despite a challenging 2015
- Fitch commodity exporters w/deteriorating credit fundamentals might face a negative bias & be vulnerable to tighter liquidity
- Brazil central gov't posts primary surplus of $3.6 bln in January
- Argentina suspends dollar-denominated bond sale (IFR sources)
- (1645 ET / 2145 GMT) New Zealand Building Consents (previous Jan -2.1%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan All Household Spending YY Jan (consensus -4.1%, previous -3.4%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan All Household Spending MM Jan (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.4%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Core Nationwide YY Jan (consensus 2.3%, previous 2.5%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Nationwide Jan (previous 2.4%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan CPI Core Tokyo YY Feb (consensus 2.2%, previous 2.2%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan CPI, Overall Tokyo Feb (previous 2.3%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan Jobs/Applicants Ratio Jan (consensus 1.15, previous 1.15)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan Unemployment Rate Jan (consensus 3.4%, previous 3.4%)
- (1830 ET / 2330 GMT) Japan Industrial output prelim mm Jan (consensus 2.7%, previous 0.8%)
- (1850 ET / 2350 GMT) Japan IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Jan (previous 6.3%)
- (1850 ET / 2350 GMT) Japan IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Jan (previous -1.8%)
- (1850 ET / 2350 GMT) Japan Retail Sales YY Jan (consensus -1.3%, previous 0.2%)
- (1900 ET/ 0000 GMT) New Zealand NBNZ Business Outlook Jan (previous 30.4%)
- (1900 ET/ 0000 GMT) New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity Jan (previous 37.3%)
- (1930 ET / 0030 GMT) Australia Private Sector Credit Jan (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
- (1930 ET / 0030 GMT) Australia Housing Credit Jan (previous 0.6%)
- (0000 ET / 0500 GMT) Japan Construction Orders YY Jan (previous 7.5%)
- (0000 ET / 0500 GMT) Japan Housing Starts YY Jan (consensus -11.3%, previous -14.7%)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/CAD: Upbeat momentum in the US dollar is now lifting USD/CAD. The pair is advancing more than a big-figure since it dropped to session lows in the vicinity of 1.2380 during the European afternoon. Pair is now up over 0.79% at 1.2531 with the next barrier at 1.2600. On the flipside, a breach of 1.2388 would see tests of 1.2360 (low ) and then 1.2353 (low Feb.3). No Canada data tomorrow, focus will be on US publications: Reuters/Michigan index, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI and speeches by Fed's Fischer and Dudley.
EUR/GBP: Downside is limited. Pair is currently trading at 0.7266 with a high of 0.7327 and a low of 0.7261. EUR/GBP is extending the downside from 0.7840 and January's business. There is scope for a deeper retracement to 0.7700/.7905, but the intraday charts are more neutral. Below here the downside target is the 0.7235/25 an inter-year pivot.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD accelerated to the downside after breaking below the 1.5450 support area, reinforced by the 100-hour SMA, and dropped another half-a-cent toward to hit its lowest level in 3 days below 1.5400. The pair bottomed out at 1.5396 as the dollar rallied across the board following a batch of economic indicators. Supports are at 1.5331 and 1.5314, while resistance are seen at 1.5450 (100-hour SMA), 1.5500 and 1.5551.
AUD/USD: After many attempts AUD/USD finally broke the 0.7800 support and it's now trading at 2-day lows around 0.7785. Trading range during the day was high at 0.7914 and low at 0.7788. Supports are at 0.7740 and 0.7720 and resistances are at 0.7800, 0.7820, 0.7850 and 0.7900.
EUR/CHF: Swiss franc strengthened across the board backed by upbeat Switzerland's industrial production data. EUR/CHF dropped to 1-week low during the American session. So far the decline has been capped by the 1.0660 area. A consolidation below could open the doors for another slide. Support levels under 1.0660 lie at 1.0645 and 1.0595. Resistance now could be located at 1.0720/30 and 1.0795.
