Market Roundup
•New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 0.4%, 0.7% forecast, 1.4% previous
•New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8%, 0.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
•New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q1) 0.7%, 0.2% previous
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 0.4%, 0.3% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.5%, 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.6%, 3.6% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 1.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 5.3%, 4.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 5.0%, 4.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 1.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• German GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.0%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:00 China FDI (Apr) -10.80% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as the dollar weakened amid growing concerns over the United States' fiscal outlook. Following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt last week, investor focus has shifted to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden and President Donald Trump’s tax bill, which could add trillions more. Dubbed a "big, beautiful bill" by Trump, the legislation narrowly passed the Republican-led House and now moves to the Senate, where extended debate is expected—keeping market sentiment on edge in the near term. The dollar index, which compares the U.S. currency against six other units, including the yen and euro, is set for a1.35%decline this week and was down 0.3% at 99.614. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1383(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1450(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1163(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Friday upbeat UK retail sales and weaker dollar boosted pound across the board. British consumers showed signs of resilience as data released Friday pointed to a surprising jump in retail sales and improved sentiment. Retail volumes climbed 1.2% in April, significantly beating expectations, aided by sunny weather and following a revised 0.1% rise in March, according to the Office for National Statistics. Meanwhile, a separate GfK survey indicated a modest increase in consumer confidence in May, possibly driven by optimism over declining interest rates and easing global trade pressures offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise sluggish economic outlook. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3481(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3516(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3415(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3290(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Friday as the US dollar weakened due to renewed concerns over the fiscal outlook in the United States.The Republican-led House passed a major tax and spending bill Thursday, advancing Trump's agenda and increasing the national debt by trillions.U.S. debt concerns grew after Moody's downgraded the country’s credit rating, ending a short calm after last month’s tariff turmoil. The coming week ,Australia is set to release monthly inflation data on Wednesday and retail sales figures on Friday, both closely watched after the central bank signaled potential interest rate cuts.RBA July rate cut is now priced in with a 60% probability, and markets anticipate a total easing of 65 basis points by the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6487(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6368(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday after Japan's core inflation accelerated at its fastest annual pace in more than two years in April, raising the odds of another interest rate hike by year-end .Japan's core inflation rose at its fastest annual pace in over two years in April, driven by steady increases in food prices, boosting expectations of another rate hike by the end of the year.Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 3.5% year-over-year in April, beating expectations of a 3.4% gain and accelerating from March’s 3.2% increase.The data highlights the Bank of Japan's challenge in balancing persistent food-driven inflation with growth headwinds stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.37 (May 23rdhigh)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.87(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.18(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.38(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Asian shares dipped on Friday as concerns over U.S. fiscal health persisted, despite President Donald Trump's tax bill narrowly passing the House of Representatives.
China A 50 was down 0.84% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.06%,Hang Seng was down by 0.07 %.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Friday, on track for their biggest weekly gain in over a month, as a weaker U.S. dollar and mounting fiscal concerns in the U.S. enhanced the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $3,329.69 an ounce as of 0654 GMT. Bullion has risen 4% this week, its highest since April 7.
Oil prices fell for the fourth straight session on Friday and were headed for their first weekly decline in three weeks, pressured by concerns over a potential OPEC+ output increase in July.
Brent futures fell 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.96 a barrel by 0635 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $60.72.
