Market Roundup
• New Zealand Exports (Oct): 5.77B, 4.91B previous
• New Zealand Imports (Oct): 7.31B, 7.06B previous
• New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3): -0.1%, -0.5% forecast,-1.2% previous
• New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago (Q3): -2.5%, -3.6%previous
• New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct): -8,960M, -9,150M previous
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Sep): 1.3%, 1.7% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Sep): 109.1, forecast: 109.4, 106.9 previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Sep): 2.2%, 2.5%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Nov): 87.0 forecast, 87.3 previous
09:00 German Current Assessment (Nov): 85.4 forecast, 85.7 previous
09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov): 86.1 forecast, 86.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: the euro firmed on Monday as dollar retreated following Donald Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. The appointment raised expectations of a more restrained approach to tariffs, helping to reduce U.S.-China trade tensions.The single currency had taken a hit on Friday as European manufacturing surveys (PMI) showed broad weakness, while the U.S. surveys surprised on the high side.The contrast saw European bond yields fall sharply, widening the gap with Treasury yields to the benefit of the dollar. Minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Tuesday and will offer more colour on the decision to cut by 50 basis points and the discussion for future easing.Also due this week are figures on U.S. and EU inflation, which will further refine the outlook for rates. The euro edged up 0.5% to $1.0478 and away from Friday's two-year trough of $1.0332. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0463(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0520(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0400`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0326(Daily low)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Monday as dollar lost steam after Donald Trump picked hedge-fund manager Scott Bessent to run the U.S. Treasury. As U.S. Treasury secretary, Bessent will essentially be the highest-ranking U.S. economic official, responsible for maintaining the world's largest economy, from collecting taxes and paying the nation's bills to managing the $28.6-trillion Treasury debt market and overseeing financial regulation. Bessent is expected by market participants to push a more phased implementation of trade tariffs and make efforts to rein in the U.S. budget deficit.Sterling climbed 0.5% to $1.2592. On Friday, it slumped to the weakest since early May at $1.2475. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2721(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar initially gained on Monday but gave up ground as market reacted to news of Scott Bessent being named the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent is expected by market participants to push a more phased implementation of trade tariffs and make efforts to rein in the U.S. budget deficit. Looking ahead, Australia is set to release its monthly inflation data, with October's CPI expected to soften. There's a possibility that the trimmed mean core inflation could dip to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target range.The U.S. dollar had its longest stretch of weekly gains in over a year on Friday as investors continued to price in President-Elect Trump's fiscal policies.. At GMT 06:56, The Aussie was trading up 0.37% at 0.6521. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(SMA 21).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6481(Nov 19th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as dollar retreated against rivals as bond yields slid following the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as the next U.S. Treasury secretary. President-elect Trump's appointment of a Treasury secretary has been closely watched in bond markets as expectations of tax cuts as well as tariffs and an immigration crackdown have stoked fears of inflation and big deficits. The index was last down 0.5% at 106.950, having hit a two-year peak of 108.090 on Friday. The dollar dipped 0.31% on the Japanese yen to 154.26 , and further away from its recent peak of 156.76.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.63(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks surged alongside U.S. equity futures on Monday, while the dollar weakened against other currencies as bond yields fell. This came after the appointment of fund manager Scott Bessent as the next U.S. Treasury Secretary..
Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.6% and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices retreated on Monday following 6% gains last week, but remained near two-week highs as geopolitical tensions grew between Western powers and major oil producers Russia and Iran, raising risks of supply disruption.
Brent crude futures slipped 26 cents, or 0.35%, to $74.91 a barrel by 0440 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.97 a barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.38%.
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Monday, weighed down by profit-taking after a five-session rally, with further pressure from the announcement of fund manager Scott Bessent as the next U.S. Treasury Secretary.
Spot gold fell 1.52% to $2,671.29 per ounce as of 0501 GMT, while U.S. gold futures shed 1.5% to $2,672.90. Spot prices had hit their highest since Nov. 6 earlier in the session.
