Market Roundup
•Australia Employment (Nov) 35.6K, 26.0K forecast, 12.2K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Nov) 52.6K, 8.9K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Nov) 67.0%, 67.1% forecast, 67.1% previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.9%, 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:10 Italian 15-Year BTP Auction 3.93% previous
•10:10 Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.73% previous
•10:10 Italian 30-Year BTP Auction 4.040% previous
•10:10 EUR Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 3.23% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•08:30 Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) 0.75%, 1.00%
•13:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 3.00% forecast, 3.25% previous
• 13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro recovered some ground against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the ECB's monetary policy meeting later today. The European Central Bank is nearly certain to cut interest rates again on Thursday and signal further easing in 2025, as inflation in the eurozone nears its target and the economy shows signs of faltering. The ECB has already reduced rates at three of its last four meetings. The focus is now on whether the bank is easing quickly enough to support an economy teetering on the brink of recession, facing political instability, and the threat of a new trade war with the U.S. The decision is likely to hinge on this, with policy hawks on the 26-member Governing Council expected to support a modest 25 basis point cut, bringing the benchmark rate to 3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0541(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0605(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0473(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0439(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday after U.S. price data came in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four straight months, data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled had forecast the index would rise 0.3%.the report, the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed on Dec. 18 rose to more than 94%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Focus is now on U.S. Producer Price Index data, due at 1330 GMT, for insights into the Fed's 2025 policy.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2830(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2933 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2728(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2598(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded on Thursday after stronger-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations of an early interest rate cut. The data revealed a surprise drop in unemployment, falling to an eight-month low of 3.9% in November, defying analysts' forecasts of a 4.2% rise in jobless claims. Employment also rose by 35,600, surpassing the expected 25,000 and extending the resilience of the labor market. Swap markets reacted sharply, reducing the implied chance of a February rate cut to around 50%, down from 68% prior to the jobs data release. This shift helped the Aussie gain 0.5%, reaching $0.6403., and away from a 13-month of $0.6337 hit overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6459(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6512(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6408(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6347(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as the market absorbed the U.S. CPI data, while uncertainty about the timing of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan continued to exerted bearish pressure on yen. Market expectations for a December rate hike were lowered after reports suggested that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sees little benefit in waiting before acting. While some BOJ officials have hinted at a rate hike next week based on incoming data and market movements, investors are now looking to Friday's Japanese business confidence statistics for more insight into the country's economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.09 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.61(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.61(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks gained on Thursday, following Wall Street's tech-led rally overnight, after an in-line U.S. consumer inflation report strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
Hang Seng was up 1.74%, and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.62%. China’s A50 was up by 1.18%.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday as investors took profits after prices reached a more than one-month high, driven by rising expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
Spot gold shed 0.3% to $2,711.00 per ounce, as of 0455 GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion hit its highest level since Nov. 6 at $2,725.79.U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $2,746.80.
Oil prices were little changed in Asian trade on Thursday, as weak demand forecasts and a higher-than-expected increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories limited gains
Brent crude futures were up 14 cents at $73.66 a barrel at 0519 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 6 cents to $70.35. Both benchmarks had gained over $1 each on Wednesday.
