Market Roundup
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 5.3%, 5.5% forecast, 5.4% previous
•China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Oct) 5.8%, 5.8% previous
•China Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 4.8%, 3.8% forecast, 3.2% previous
•China Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Oct) 3.51%, 3.35% previous
•China Unemployment Rate (Oct) 5.0%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous
•Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Sep) 4.4%, -5.3% previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 1.6%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
•Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Sep) 1.90, 0.20 forecast, -2.90 previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3) 4.5%, 0.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2%, 0.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Sep) -0.4%, -0.5% previous, 0.5%
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Sep) 1.0%, 1.1% previous
•UK Index of Services (Sep) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) -1.8%, -1.2% forecast, -1.7% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Sep) -0.7%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) -1.0%, 0.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% forecast, -1.3% previous
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Oct) 1.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
•07:45 French Inflation (YoY) (Oct) 1.00% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro languished near a one-year low against the dollar on Friday as investors digested ECB statement and Fed Powell comments. Minutes of the latest meeting from the European Central Bank showed the cut last month was likely an insurance move. Markets more dovish on the ECB and see a decent 36% chance it could step up its easing in December with a half-point move to guard against growth risks.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates, citing ongoing economic growth, a solid job market and sticky inflation as reasons for caution against easing policy too quickly. Traders reacted by paring bets of the pace and scale of future U.S. rate cuts, with Fed funds futures now implying just 71 basis points worth of easing by end-2025.The euro was in turn on track for its worst weekly performance in seven months with a fall of 1.75%. The common currency last bought $1.0558. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling rebounded from its record low against the dollar on Friday as investors booked profits on short positions. The currency had been under pressure since early last week, driven by concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could exacerbate inflation, potentially leading to fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. producer prices rose in October, according to the Labor Department on Thursday, following data showing that consumer inflation had barely moved the previous month. Additionally, a drop in new applications for unemployment benefits last week pointed to continued strength in the U.S. labor market. Sterling was in turn on track for its steepest weekly fall since January 2023 at roughly 2%. It last ticked up 0.06% to $1.2676.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2818(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2635(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian edged higher from three-month low on Friday as investors absorbed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and mixed Chinese economic data. Powell stated on Thursday that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation as reasons to be cautious about easing policy too quickly. Meanwhile, China's factory output growth slowed in October, with industrial production rising 5.3% year-on-year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was a slowdown from September's 5.4% growth and missed the 5.6% forecast in a poll. However, retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 4.8% in October, accelerating from 3.2% in September and marking the fastest growth since February. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.6467 on Friday but was still on track to lose 1.85% for the week, its worst weekly performance in four months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6539(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6456(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar remained around the 156 level against the yen on Friday, as investors reacted to the latest GDP data. Japan's economy grew by an annualized 0.9% in the July-September quarter, a slowdown from the previous three months, largely due to weak capital spending. Uncertainty continues regarding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization, with mixed economic data and a recent political shake-up clouding the outlook. On Friday, the BOJ announced that Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech and hold a news conference on Monday, an event expected to draw market attention for any hints about a potential interest rate hike next month. The yen has depreciated nearly 11% since its peak in September, falling below the 156 per dollar mark for the first time since July in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.16 (23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.76(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.36(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.50(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average broke a three-session losing streak on Friday, buoyed by a weaker yen, which helped lift automakers, while financials gained after three major banks raised their annual profit forecasts.
The Nikkei closed 0.28% higher at 38,642.91 but still ended the week down 2.4%. The index briefly hit a session high of 39,101.64 before trimming gains due to profit-taking.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged down on Friday and was set for its worst week in more than three years, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar amid expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,562.61 per ounce, as of 0554 GMT. It has fallen more than 4% so far in the week.
Oil prices fell on Friday on signs demand in China, the world's biggest crude importer, continues to underperform amid its uneven economic recovery.
Brent crude futures were down 65 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.91 a barrel by 0450 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 62 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.08.
