Market Roundup
• German WPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.2%forecast,0.7% previous
• German WPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction 1.870%, 1.938% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.051% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.999% previous
• 13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.034% previous
• 14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Sep) 106.41 previous
• 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 14:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 13:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped slightly against the dollar on Monday as political developments in France continued to weigh on the currency. The French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s new cabinet on Sunday, retaining most top positions at a time when opponents are demanding a political shift to gain their support for urgent budget talks. Lecornu, reappointed last week after a previous 27-day stint as prime minister, had pledged a cabinet of “renewal and diversity,” but largely stuck with his prior picks for key roles. The eurozone data calendar is light this week, with industrial production, trade figures, final September HICP, and Germany’s ZEW survey scheduled. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also participate in a debate on the global economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1663(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1538(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Monday as dollar recovered as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on trade tensions with China. On Friday, Trump unveiled 100% tariffs on U.S.-bound Chinese goods starting November 1, responding to China’s limits on critical mineral exports. After threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese goods effective November 1, Trump softened his stance over the weekend, saying that “everything will be fine” and that the U.S. does not wish to “hurt” China . Looking ahead, the UK releases key economic data this week, including August jobs figures on Tuesday, followed by GDP, services, industrial and manufacturing output, trade, and construction output on Thursday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Washington on Tuesday, amid a busy schedule of BoE official engagements. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3442(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar regained some ground on Monday as investors assessed that the latest U.S.-China trade war threats were more symbolic than substantive. The currency had fallen sharply on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1. However, Trump’s softer stance over the weekend reassured analysts that the threats were largely tactical and that a middle ground could be reached. Commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars often act as risk hedges during periods of global market turbulence. Looking ahead, traders will focus on the RBA’s September meeting minutes on Tuesday and Australia’s September employment report on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand. The yen had surged over 1% on Friday after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1. Over the weekend, Trump softened his tone, stating that “everything will be fine” and that the U.S. does not wish to “hurt” China. Beijing defended its restrictions on rare-earth exports and related equipment as a response to U.S. actions but stopped short of imposing new tariffs on American goods. In Japan, Monday is a holiday, though political developments remain in focus following a split in the ruling coalition. Key economic events this week include machinery orders and speeches from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and BOJ Board Member Naoki Tamura on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.45(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.071 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.92 (50%fib).
EquitiesRecap
European shares edged higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump softened his trade stance on China, easing concerns that had triggered a sharp sell-off on Friday.
At (GMT 12:40),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit another record high on Monday as investors increased safe-haven bets following Trump’s renewed tariff threats against China, with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts further supporting the metal.
Spot gold was up 1.4% to $4,075.24 per ounce, as of 1033 GMT, after hitting a record $4,079.70/oz.U.S. gold futures for December delivery surged 2.4% to $4,094.70.
Oil rebounded on Monday from five-month lows amid hopes that U.S.-China talks could ease global trade tensions.
Brent crude futures rose $1.08, or 1.7%, to $63.81 a barrel by 1056 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.03 a barrel, up $1.13, or 1.92%. Both contracts lost around 4% on Friday to settle at their lowest since May.
