Market Roundup
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.4%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Sep): 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.0% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep): 2.2%, , 2.0% previous
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, , 0.1% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep): 129.43, 129.42 forecast, 129.31 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep) 77.3% forecast, 77.4% previous
•13:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 0.87% previous
•13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 417 forecast, 418 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 547 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
16:30 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as persistent U.S.-China trade tensions and signs of credit stress in the U.S. banking sector drove investors into safe-haven assets.China on Thursday accused the United States of stoking panic over its rare earth controls and rejected a White House call to roll back the curbs. U.S. bank stocks, including regional lenders Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance, fell sharply on Thursday as investors grew uneasy about risk in the sector, which has been shaken by exposure to two auto bankruptcies. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six of its counterparts, headed for a 0.7% slide this week - the largest since late July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1822(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1688(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1608(50%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound traded flat on Friday as risk-off sentiment and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions limited gains. Beijing on Thursday accused the United States of stoking panic over its rare earth policies and rejected White House calls to reverse the export curbs, further intensifying trade frictions. Meanwhile, UK data showed the economy grew 0.1% in August from July, in line with expectations, giving Finance Minister Rachel Reeves a modest boost ahead of her November budget. Investors are now closely watching next week’s inflation figures, which could influence whether the Bank of England cuts rates in November, December, or waits until early 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3543(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3567(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3415(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3165(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Friday as disappointing employment data heightened expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thursday’s report showed that Australian employment rose by just 14,900 in September, falling short of forecasts for a 20,000 gain and following a revised decline of 11,800 in August.The unemployment rate climbed to 4.5%, its highest level since November 2021, exceeding the RBA’s projected peak of 4.3%. The figures highlight ongoing weakness in the labor market, reflecting slower-than-expected job growth in recent months. Market participants now expect that the RBA may move to ease monetary policy sooner to support employment and economic growth. Market pricing now shows an 85% probability that the RBA will lower the 3.60% cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 4 meeting, up from 50% earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6476(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6565(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6458(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64167(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the Japanese yen on Friday as global trade tensions and hopes for further rate cuts drove investors toward the safe-haven currency. Overnight, China and the U.S. clashed again on trade, with Beijing rejecting White House pressure and accusing Washington of stoking alarm over rare earth export restrictions. The latest escalation adds to ongoing tensions between the world’s two largest economies, highlighting the risk of a prolonged trade standoff and its potential impact on global supply chains. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda said in Washington on Thursday that the central bank is prepared to raise its key policy rate if growth and inflation forecasts improve. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.48(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.72 (38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.55(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level)
Equities Recap
European shares fell sharply on Friday, heading for their largest decline in over two months, as renewed concerns about U.S. regional banks pressured global banking stocks.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.04 percent, Germany's Dax was down 1.45%, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past $4,300 an ounce, marking its strongest weekly performance since December 2008, as investors sought safety amid geopolitical risks and expectations of U.S. rate reductions.
Oil prices slipped on Friday, set for a weekly decline of nearly 3%, after the IEA warned of a growing supply surplus and Trump and Putin agreed to another meeting on Ukraine.
Brent crude futures were down 15 cents, or 0.25%, at $60.91 a barrel at 1140 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were 8 cents lower, down 0.14%, at $57.38.
