Market Roundup
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.7%, 1.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) 1.6%, - 2.0% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%, - 0.1% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 126.60, 126.63 previous, 126.72 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Trade Balance (Aug) 4.6B, 17.8B forecast, 19.7B previous
•EU Deposit Facility Rate (Oct) 3.25%, 3.25% forecast, 3.50% previous
•EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.65%, - 3.90% previous
•EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 3.40%, 3.40% forecast, 3.65% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims - 1,870K forecast,1,861K previous
•12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) - 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 241K forecast, 258K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 231.00K previous
•12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 4.2 forecast, 1.7 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Oct) 15.8 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Oct) 25.00 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Oct) 10.7 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Oct) 1.5 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Oct) 34.00 previous
•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Sep 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 2.13% previous
•12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Aug) 9.50B forecast, 10.98B previous
•12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Aug) 4.450B previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 169.0K previous
•13:30 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep) 77.9% 78.0%
•13:30 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 0.04% previous
•13:30 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% forecast,0.8% previous
•13:30 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
• 14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% forecast ,0.4% previous
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 43 forecast , 41 previous
• 14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) 0.4% forecast , 0.5% previous
•14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage - 80B forecast , 82B previous
•15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories - 1.800M forecast , 5.810M previous
•15:00 USD EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.101M previous
•15:00 USD Crude Oil Imports 0.305M previous
•15:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.247M previous
•15:00 USD Distillate Fuel Production 0.194M previous
•15:00 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 2.500M forecast , -3.124M previous
•15:00 USD Gasoline Production 0.627M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:15 ECB Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held below 1.8900 level on Thursday after the ECB lowered borrowing costs by 25bps as expected during its October 2024 meeting. The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year on Thursday, pointing out that inflation in the euro zone is now increasingly under control and the economic outlook has worsened. .It follows similar moves in September and June, bringing the key deposit rate to 3.25%, the lowest since May 2023.Lagarde and colleagues are unlikely to drop clear hints about future moves on Thursday, repeating their mantra that decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data. The euro rose to around $1.0865 from $1.0863 just before the ECB rate decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0870(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0897(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Thursday after data showed that British inflation slowed more than expected in September, making it simpler for the Bank of England to reduce interest rates further this year. British inflation fell to 1.7% year on year in September from 2.2% in August, the lowest level since April 2021 and lower than poll's forecast of 1.9%. Headline CPI remained steady month on month, although closely monitored services inflation fell to 4.9% year on year. Expectations that the BoE would cut rates more slowly than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank supported the pound earlier this year, though the gap has narrowed somewhat. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar traded near two month low against greenback on Thursday, as dismal inflation data fanned expectations of aggressive monetary easing.Annual inflation decreased to 2.2% in the third quarter from 3.3% the previous quarter, marking the first time in more than three years that inflation has fallen inside the RBNZ's target range of 1-3%. Swap traders are overwhelmingly betting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut by another 50 bps in November, although there is a small risk - about 5% - for a 75 bp move. At (GMT 06:38) Kiwi dollar was trading at up 0.10% at $0.6063 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as resilience in the U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in easing rates. The dollar has not only drawn support from a run of upbeat data on the U.S. economy which has in turn caused traders to scale back their expectations of Fed rate cut, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at next month's election. Looking ahead, U.S. retail sales figures for September and an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank are due later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.83(Oct 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.70(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Stocks in Europe regained some lost ground on Thursday European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year on Thursday.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.57 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.42 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices charged to an all-time high on Thursday, as expectations of more interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election boosted demand for bullion.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,686.46 per ounce by 1126 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,688.82 earlier in the day.U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,702.20.
Oil prices were broadly flat on Thursday as investors waited on developments in the Middle East, the release of official U.S. oil inventory data and details on China's stimulus plans.
Brent crude futures were up 11 cents to $74.33 a barrel at 1114 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.47 a barrel, up 8 cents.
