Market Roundup
•French CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.3%, 1.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
•French GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Nov) 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.9%, 0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French PPI (YoY) (Oct) -5.70%, -6.90% previous
•Swiss KOF Leading Indicators (Nov) 101.8, 100.1 forecast, 99.7 previous
•Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Oct) 810.3B, N/A forecast, 802.3B previous
•Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2.0%, 1.8% forecast, 1.5% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Nov) 7K, 20K forecast, 27K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.1%, 6.1% forecast, 6.1% previous
•German Unemployment (Nov) 2.860M, 2.856M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Nov) 2.774M, 2.791M previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Sep) -5.70%, -4.90% previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.30%, -0.30% previous
•Spanish Current Account (Sep) 4.10B, 5.63B previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EUCore CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.6%, 0.2% previous
•EUCPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.3%, 0.3% forecast, N/A previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.0% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Nov) 126.67, 127.03 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q3) 1.10% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.91% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3) 1.0% forecast, 2.1% previous
•16:00 CAD Budget Balance (YoY) (Sep) -9.84B previous
•16:00 CAD Budget Balance (Sep) -2.55B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar dipped as markets rekindled hopes for a U.S. rate cut in December.A reading of euro-area inflation is due later in the day that could give hints on the pace of European Central Bank rate cuts, while France's budget wrangling may continue to drag on the shared currency.ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank should keep its options open for a bigger rate cut next month, countering hawkish comments from peer Isabel Schnabel the previous day.The euro has tumbled about 2.8% in November, putting it on course for its worst month since May of last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday as US dollar fell broadly in thin holiday trade. The dollar has been in the doldrums since its surge to a two-year high against a basket of key rivals a week ago, but remains on track for a more than 2% gain in November, following its more than 3% leap last month.lot of that strength has been fuelled by Donald Trump's resounding election victory on Nov. 5, pumping up expectations of big fiscal spending, higher tariffs and tighter borders, all seen by economists as inflationary. Major U.S. data releases next week including job openings, the ADP employment report and the employment report will likely offer cues about the Fed's policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2755(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2800 (Psychologicallevel).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2519(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against dollar Friday as hawkish speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock supported Australian dollar. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock stated at an economic conference that the core inflation rate of 3.5% in the third quarter exceeded the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. She emphasized that policy must remain restrictive until the bank is confident that the target band can be achieved. The central bank has maintained its cash rate at 4.35% for a full year, and markets had already priced in just a 10% likelihood of a quarter-point cut at its next board meeting on December 10.At GMT 13:08, Australian dollar was up at 0.26% at $0.6514, holding steady for the week after reaching a four-month low of $0.6434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6470(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(Nov 26th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined to hit six week low against the yen on Friday after faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo supported bets for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next month. Japan's currency has been boosted by safe-haven flows amid Trump's broad tariff warnings to Mexico, Canada and China this week, and by growing bets that the BOJ will raise rates again on Dec. 19.Traders currently lay about 57% odds for a quarter-point increase, and just over half of economists in a Reuters poll predicted the same. Potentially adding to the case for a hike, Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier. That exceeded a median market forecast for a 2.1% gain and accelerated from a 1.8% increase in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.59 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.58 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.67 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.10(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks traded mixed Friday on as investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s final policy meeting of the year on December 12.
At (GMT 12:27),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.47 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Friday, supported by a weaker greenback and geopolitical woes, but were on course for their worst monthly performance since September 2023 due to a dollar rally this month following Donald Trump's U.S. election victory.
Spot gold climbed 0.7% to $2,659.49 per ounce, as of 1201 GMT, but set for a weekly fall of about 2% after a sharp sell-off earlier this week. U.S. gold futures also gained 0.8% to $2,659.20.
Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly drop of more than 3%, pressured by easing concern over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.
Brent crude was down 45 cents, or 0.6%, at $72.83 a barrel by 1214 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $68.68, down 12 cents, or 0.2%, from the last close before Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Brent is down 3% over the week while WTI has lost 3.7%.
