Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Sep) 1.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Sep) 3.1%, 0.5% forecast, -1.4% previous
• German Trade Balance (Sep) 15.3B, 16.7B forecast, 16.9B previous
• French Current Account (Sep) -1.60B, 1.40B previous
• French Exports (Sep) 51.9B, 51.9B previous
• French Imports (Sep) 58.5B, 57.1B previous
• French Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 350,037.0M, 330,268.0M previous
• French Trade Balance (Sep) -6.6B, -5.9B forecast, -5.2B previous
• Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Oct) 724.8B, 726.8B previous
• Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Q4) -37, -36 forecast, -28 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages, Permanent Employees (Oct) 3.6% previous
•13:30 Canada Employment Change (Oct) -5.0K 60.4K previous
•13:30 Canada Full-Time Employment Change (Oct) 106.1K previous
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Oct) -45.6K previous
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Oct) 65.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Oct) 7.1% forecast, 7.1% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 4.6% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov) 3.9% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) 50.3 forecast, 50.3 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 53.0 forecast, 53.6 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Nov) 59.2 forecast, 58.6 previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro inched up against the dollar imvestors digested Eurozone data, while investors remained cautious amid the ongoing blackout of official U.S. economic reports. German exports rose more than expected in September, driven by a rebound in shipments to the United States after five consecutive monthly declines, official data showed on Friday. Exports from Europe’s largest economy increased 1.4% month-on-month, surpassing analysts’ poll forecast of a 0.5% rise. Looking Ahead investors await the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data for November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Friday as investors weighed the Bank of England’s latest rate decision and turned their attention to the government’s upcoming budget later this month.A tight vote and indications that BoE Governor Andrew Bailey could soon align with rate-cut supporters have boosted expectations of a December easing.The BoE kept rates unchanged, falling short of the most dovish expectations, as a minority of analysts had anticipated a 25-basis-point cut.Traders see a 60% chance of a 25 bps BoE rate cut and a total of 58 bps of easing by end-2026. British 2-year yields, highly sensitive to policy expectations, rose 1.5 bps to 4.11% on Friday, after dropping 6.5 bps the day before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher as investors sought to balance the Federal Reserve's hawkish tilt against lingering concerns over the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, investors were assessing the fallout from data that sounded an alarm bell for the global economic outlook: Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October, recording their steepest drop since February, after months of frontloading U.S. orders to dodge tariffs. The dollar index, which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six peers, was flat at 99.67 and was on track for a 0.05% weekly fall. It has recovered some strength but remained lodged within the same trading range it has sat in since August.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6544(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6474(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6441(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September meeting released on Wednesday showed that a growing number of policymakers see conditions aligning for a rate hike, with two members supporting an immediate increase. A third member cited uncertainty over a U.S. economic slowdown as a reason to hold off but noted it could be time to consider raising rates again “judging solely from the perspective of Japan’s economic conditions. On the data front, Japanese household spending rose 1.8% in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, falling short of market expectations for a 2.5% increase.On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, household spending fell 0.7%, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decline, according to data from the Internal Affairs Ministry.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares were poised to close a volatile week lower on Friday, weighed down by ongoing concerns over high valuations in tech-related stocks globally, while Britain’s ITV surged amid talks of selling its broadcasting division.
At (GMT 13:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.06 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed on Friday but were still set for a second straight weekly loss, following three days of declines amid concerns over excess supply and weakening U.S. demand.
Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.66 a barrel at 0421 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.72 a barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.49%.
Gold climbed on Friday, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook amid the ongoing government shutdown..
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,999.89 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,008.20 per ounce.
