Market Roundup
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Nov) 2.6%, 2.5% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) 2.6% ,2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct) -1.5% ,-2.0% forecast, 4.2% previous
•Finnish Trade Balance (Oct) -0.33B, 0.26B previous
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 1.9%, 0.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 48.5 ,48.2 previous
•German IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 38.0, 40.2 previous
•French IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Nov) 43.7 ,42.2 previous
•EU M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov) 42.7 ,43.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,910K forecast, 1,907K previous
•13:30 US Exports (Oct) 267.90B previous
•13:30 US Imports (Oct) 352.30B previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 215K forecast, 213K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 217.00K previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Oct) -75.70B forecast, -84.40B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Oct) 63.88B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Oct) 65.15B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Oct) -0.60B forecast -1.26B previous
•13:30 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov) 52.2 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 53.1 forecast ,52.0 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -2B previous
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.550% previous
•16:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction 4.500% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:30 FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday as investors brushed off concerns about political instability in France following the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government. Barnier is expected to resign on Thursday, making him the shortest serving prime minister in modern French history. France now risks ending the year without a stable government or a 2025 budget, although the constitution allows special measures that would avert a U.S.-style government shutdown. Investors also digested comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday. She said the ECB will continue to lower rates, but did not commit to any pace of easing. The spotlight will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November, which is expected to show 200,000 jobs added in the month, according to a Reuters survey, after only 12,000 jobs were created in October, the lowest number since December 2020.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0559(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0595(Nov 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0462(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0417(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose for a third consecutive session on Thursday as it continued to recover from a six-month trough hit in late November. Sterling has been at the mercy of the dollar in recent months, dropping from a 1-1/2-year high in October as the U.S. jobs market roared ahead and falling further in November as the re-election of Donald Trump boosted the American currency. Bank of England data on Thursday showed British employers' expectations for wage growth have cooled a bit further. Separate figures showed activity in Britain's construction industry picked up in November, though neither release impacted sterling. The pound has largely remained out of the limelight as the re-election of Trump as has led to swings in currencies whose economies might face tariffs, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained near a four-month low on Thursday as investors anticipated more aggressive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market pricing on rates shifted dramatically on Wednesday after data on Australian economic growth dashed recovery hopes, while also signaling a slowdown in wage and price pressures. The RBA is set to meet next week, and while it is widely expected to keep rates at 4.35%the same level it has maintained for the past yearswaps markets now imply a 50% chance of a rate cut in February, up from 27% before the data was released. At GMT 13:06, The Aussie was trading up 0.09% to $0.6435, having shed 0.9% on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.63826(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as traders debated whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates later this month. Expectations had been building that the BOJ might hike rates at its December 18-19 meeting, supported by comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda. However, media reports published on Wednesday suggested the BOJ could hold off on a rate hike this month, creating uncertainty among investors.Adding to the mixed signals, BOJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura stated on Thursday that the central bank must carefully examine various economic indicators, including wage growth and business sentiment, before deciding whether to raise rates. Nakamura, who is considered dovish on monetary policy, appears to leave the door open for a rate hike at the upcoming BOJ meeting, keeping market expectations alive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.97 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.62 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.82(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks hovered near one-month highs on Thursday as investors shrugged off concerns about political instability in France after lawmakers voted to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government in a widely expected move.
At GMT 13:08,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained subdued on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of U.S. payrolls data, which could offer further insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions.
Spot gold edged 0.1% lower at $2,648.02 per ounce by 0726 GMT. U.S. gold futures also eased 0.1% to $2,672.90.
Oil prices pared some gains on Thursday after a source informed Reuters that OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase until April 2025.
Brent crude was up 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.55 a barrel at 1237 GMT. It had been at $72.84 before Reuters reported the delay.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 25 cents, 0.4%, and was trading at $68.79 a barrel.
