FxWirePro: Stay short in bullion CME futures contracts on disappointing expectations of US fundamentals

Stay short Dec’17 CME Gold, For now, we maintain our tactical short gold trade recommendation as we see the potential for more near-term weakness in prices. This position mainly reflects our view that US data should normalize and rates should move a bit higher in the short term.

Gold prices are inching higher during European morning trade on Thursday, moving away from their lowest level in around five weeks as recent selling pressure tied to bets on another U.S. interest rate hike this year lost steam.

Comex gold futures were at $1,254.15 a troy ounce by 0800GMT, up $8.35, or around 0.7%.

On the economy, despite several data disappointments, especially on the inflation front, we remain comfortable with our forecast that 2Q US GDP growth will more than double from its depressed 1Q pace. Including today’s May retail sales report and the revisions higher in the prior months, annualized consumer spending growth in 2Q appears to be tracking at 3.5%, 50bp higher than our previous estimate, highlighting some upside risk to our 3% real GDP growth forecast. 

However, as our trade has moved into the money, we tighten our stop to avoid a loss.

Went short Dec’17 CME gold at a price of $1,266.20/oz on May 18, 2017.  Trade target is $1,140/oz with a stop loss at $1,265.20/oz.  Marked to market on June 15, 2017 at $1,262.90/oz for a gain of $3.30/oz or 0.3%.