Dollar Hits One-Month High as Hawkish Fed Outlook Boosts Greenback 
Japan Signals Readiness to Intervene as USD/JPY Nears 161 Amid Yen Weakness 
German Industry Employment Falls to Lowest Level in a Decade 
Asian Stocks Rally as Japan and South Korea Reach Record Highs on US-Iran Peace Deal 
Trump and Iran Sign Framework Peace Deal in France Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions 
Trump Questions USMCA Renewal as Trade Talks Continue 
Oil Prices Drop as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Eases Supply Concerns 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
Canada, British Columbia Launch $5 Billion Infrastructure Partnership to Boost Housing, Transit, and Healthcare 
Canada Imposes 10% Tariff on Canned Vegetable Imports to Protect Domestic Industry 
Japan Inflation Stays Below BOJ Target Despite Rate Hike and Rising Energy Cost Risks 
Oil Prices Steady as U.S.-Iran Truce Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge 
US Stock Futures Slip After Wall Street Rally Fueled by US-Iran Deal and Chipmaker Surge 
Asian Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Fall and Strong US Dollar Weighs on Markets 
Oil Prices Slide as U.S.-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening Ease Supply Concerns 
China’s AI Manufacturing Boom Masks Weak Consumer Economy, Citi Says 
Dollar Surges After Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential Tightening Ahead 
Asian stock markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors awaited developments on a potential U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump is set to meet with congressional leaders later in the day to discuss extending federal funding. Without a deal, the shutdown would begin Wednesday, coinciding with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other goods.
Analysts warn a prolonged closure could hinder the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions ahead of its October 29 meeting, as key reports like September payrolls would be delayed. Bank of America noted that while private data could fill gaps, the lack of official government releases may slightly reduce the likelihood of an October rate cut, though markets still price in a 90% chance. Growth impacts are expected to be minor, with estimates of a 0.1% reduction in GDP per week of closure. However, permanent job cuts tied to the shutdown could weigh on employment and consumer confidence.
Despite political uncertainty, equities may find support in seasonal trends. Historically, the fourth quarter has been favorable for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 posting gains nearly three-quarters of the time. On Monday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%, while European futures, including Eurostoxx 50, FTSE, and DAX, also rose 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.7% after a strong September, while South Korea’s market advanced 1.2%. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.4%, adding nearly 4% in September.
Treasury yields steadied at 4.17% after recent pressure from strong U.S. economic data. The dollar index held firm at 98.134, with the euro trading at $1.1708 and the yen at 149.49.
In commodities, gold hovered near record highs at $3,764 an ounce, while oil prices eased. Brent crude slipped 0.8% to $69.57, and U.S. crude fell 0.9% to $65.14 as Iraq resumed exports through a key pipeline. OPEC+ is expected to approve another output hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting.
