UBS Boosts China Tech Bets, Adds Kuaishou and Meituan to Focus List 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
Japanese Yen Holds Steady as Intervention Hopes Grow Ahead of U.S. CPI Data 
China Q2 2026 GDP Misses Forecast as Weak Domestic Demand Offsets Export Strength 
China Trade Surplus Hits $125.6 Billion as June Exports, Imports Smash Forecasts 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment 
Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Bets Grow 
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Gold Price Holds Near Record High as Cooling U.S. Inflation Offsets Fed Caution 
South Korea’s KOSPI Enters Bear Market Despite Remaining 2026’s Best-Performing Major Stock Index 
Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Strikes on Iran Raise Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears 
Oil Prices Climb as Trump Escalates Iran Pressure, Strait of Hormuz Risks Grow 
Asian Stocks Slide as Oil Surge, U.S.-Iran Tensions and Fed Rate Bets Weigh on Markets 
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions 
US Inflation Expected to Ease in June, but Fed Rate Hike Risks Persist Amid Middle East Tensions 
Oil Prices Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates and Strait of Hormuz Risks Grow 
Asian stock markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors awaited developments on a potential U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump is set to meet with congressional leaders later in the day to discuss extending federal funding. Without a deal, the shutdown would begin Wednesday, coinciding with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other goods.
Analysts warn a prolonged closure could hinder the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions ahead of its October 29 meeting, as key reports like September payrolls would be delayed. Bank of America noted that while private data could fill gaps, the lack of official government releases may slightly reduce the likelihood of an October rate cut, though markets still price in a 90% chance. Growth impacts are expected to be minor, with estimates of a 0.1% reduction in GDP per week of closure. However, permanent job cuts tied to the shutdown could weigh on employment and consumer confidence.
Despite political uncertainty, equities may find support in seasonal trends. Historically, the fourth quarter has been favorable for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 posting gains nearly three-quarters of the time. On Monday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%, while European futures, including Eurostoxx 50, FTSE, and DAX, also rose 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.7% after a strong September, while South Korea’s market advanced 1.2%. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.4%, adding nearly 4% in September.
Treasury yields steadied at 4.17% after recent pressure from strong U.S. economic data. The dollar index held firm at 98.134, with the euro trading at $1.1708 and the yen at 149.49.
In commodities, gold hovered near record highs at $3,764 an ounce, while oil prices eased. Brent crude slipped 0.8% to $69.57, and U.S. crude fell 0.9% to $65.14 as Iraq resumed exports through a key pipeline. OPEC+ is expected to approve another output hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting.
