If the RBA’s right, interest rates may not fall for another year. Here’s why. 
Interest rates: the ugly dilemma facing Europe’s central banks – and why it’s a mistake to cut too soon 
The UK has become the world’s fourth largest exporter, but can it maintain this momentum? 
Some experts say the US economy is on the up, but here’s why voters don’t think so 
Latest inflation figures are good news 
Inflation: why prices look likely to stay high in the UK and Ireland, and what that means for mortgages 
Uganda’s tax system isn’t bringing in enough revenue but is targeting small business the answer? 
Mortgage prisoners: regulatory changes and low credit scores have left thousands trapped in a cycle of high payments 
Interest rates: Monetary policy is always political as central banks opt to back the financial sector 
After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shifted to a neutral stance from accommodative in February, the market began to contemplate the idea that the next RBI move could be a hike. Since February however, inflation has moderated further to just 3 percent y/y in April – well below RBI’s forecast of 4.75 percent for the current FY2017-18.
The next RBI meeting is scheduled for June 7. It is widely expected that central bank will leave policy unchanged at 6.25 percent. The key things to watch will be its views on the strength of INR and new measures to drain excessive liquidity. If such measures are introduced, the RBI may be more adventurous in FX intervention to mitigate INR appreciation pressures.
"We believe RBI has been reticent to intervene aggressively in the FX market because any unsterilized intervention (i.e. RBI purchases of USD without issuing bonds to soak up the liquidity injection) will only exacerbate the current excess liquidity situation due to last year’s demonetization," Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.
