Market Roundup
- Dollar reaches multi-year highs against a basket of currencies.
- Euro falls to almost 12-year low of $1.07715 as dollar buying extends in European trading.
- Euro/sterling 2-month implied volume rises to 7-week high of 10.65 pct as investors price in uncertainty from UK election.
- Sterling/dollar two-month implied volatility rises to 3-year high of around 10.40 percent.
- New Zealand dollar slipped to a one-month low of $0.7319.
- Australian dollar lost nearly half a cent in the session to $0.7660, edging closer to a six-year low of $0.7627 plumbed last month.
- EU, Greece to begin technical loan talks on Wednesday.
- Japan PM Abe: Oil price falls are positive for JP's economy; no problem for Japan economy as a whole with USD around 120 yen.
- France Jan Industrial Output mm decrease to 0.4 % (consensus -0.3 %) vs previous 1.5 %.
- Swiss Adjusted Jobless Rate at 3.2 percent in Feb. vs 3.1 pct in Jan.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Feb) previous 97.9
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jan) job openings consensus 5.053 mln, previous 5.028 mln
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Wholesale Inventories (Jan) consensus 0.0% m/m, previous +0.1% m/m
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Wholesale Sales (Jan) consensus -0.3% m/m, previous -0.4% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (0935 ET/1435 GMT) BoE Gov Carney House of Lords testimony.
- (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $875 mln)
- (1300 ET/1800 GMT) BoE Fisher in London panel discussion
FX Recap
EUR/USD continues hovering near fresh twelve year lows and is currently trading at 1.0751 levels. The pair has been underpinned by a stronger dollar along with the launch of quantitative easing by the ECB yesterday. On the upside, next resistance is located at 1.0837 levels, above which the pair could be pushed to 1.0900 levels. On the downside, pair is likely to find support at 1.0785 levels and then at 1.0750 levels. Option expiries at 1.0850 (226M), 1.0940-50 (670M), 1.1000 (1.7BLN).
USD/JPY slid from the highs above 122 levels and trades around 121.75 in the European session. It has broken short term major resistance 121.80 and went up 122.01. It confirms the continuation of bullish trend and jump till 124.13 (Jun 2007 high). On the downside minor support is around 121 and any break below will target 120.50/119.90 (200 day HMA).The pair's minor resistance is around 122.22 and above that level it will reach 123/124.45. Option expiries at 120.50 (1.1BLN), 121.00 (280M), 121.25 (220M), 123.00 (770M).
AUD/USD continued its downward slide and is trading at 0.7622 levels. A convincing break below the key support at 0.7625 levels could push the pair to 0.7500 levels. On the topside, pair sees minor resistance at 0.7750 and a break above will suggest weakening of the bearish trend. Option expiries at 0.7740 (1.3BLN).
USD/CHF has resumed its upward move, after trading in the red on Monday. It broke above the 0.99 handle and currently trades around 0.9945 levels. Bias remains with the bulls and pair is likely to find next resistance at 1.000 and 1.0040 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 0.9900, 0.9870 and 0.9840 levels.
GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.5078 after bounce back of 1.5136. The pair is facing psychological support around 1.5000 and any break below will target 1.4950/1.4825. On the upside minor resistance is around 1.5145 (23.6% retracement of 1.555 and 1.5020) and any break above will take the pair to 1.5205/1.5250. Option expiries at 1.5230 (357M).
