Market Roundup
- EUR/GBP makes fresh 7 year lows at 0.7305 in Europe.
- AUD/USD climbs to 0.7910 from 0.7836 in Asia.
- Bank of England says net lending by FLS participants down 6.9 bln stg in fourth quarter; net lending to small firms by FLS participants down 0.8 bln stg in q4; FLS will now remain open until Jan. 29, 2016.
- German Fin Min told conservatives if Greece does not stick to agreements in coming weeks, we will view them as invalid - participants in meeting.
- European Union Feb Industrial Sentiment increases to -4.7 (consensus -4.5) vs previous -5.0.
- Italy Feb Consumer Confidence increases to 110.9 (consensus 104.5) vs previous 104.0.
- European Union Feb Consumer Inflation Expectation increases to -2.3 vs previous -3.6.
- European Union Feb Consumer Confidence Final increases to -6.7 (consensus -6.7) vs previous -8.5.
- European Union Feb Services Sentiment decreases to 4.5 (consensus 5.3) vs previous 4.8.
- European Union Feb Economic Sentiment increases to 102.1 (consensus 101.9) vs previous 101.2.
- European Union Feb Business Climate decreases to 0.07 (consensus 0.22) vs previous 0.16.
- Italy Feb Business Confidence increases to 99.1 (consensus 98.0) vs previous 97.1.
- United Kingdom Q4 Business Invest QQ prelim stays flat at -1.4 % (consensus 1.9%) vs previous -1.4 %.
- United Kingdom Q4 GDP 2nd Release QQ stays flat at +0.5 % (consensus 0.5%) vs previous 0.5%.
- European Union Jan Money-M3 Annual Growth increases to 4.1 % (consensus 3.7%) vs previous 3.6%.
- Italy Dec Retail Sales SA MM decreases to -0.2 % vs previous 0.10%.
- Germany Feb Unemployment Rate SA stays flat at 6.5 % (consensus 6.5%) vs previous 6.5%.
- Germany March GFK Consumer Sentiment increases to 9.7 (consensus 9.5) vs previous 9.3.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0800 ET/1300 GMT) US Revised Building Permits (Jan) previous 1.053 mln SAAR
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21 week) consensus 290k, previous 283k
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Continued Claims (Feb 14 week) consensus 2.390 mln, previous 2.425 mln
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US CPI (Jan) consensus -0.6% m/m, -0.1% y/y; previous -0.4% m/m, +0.8% y/y
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Core CPI (Jan) consensus +0.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y; previous 0.0% m/m, +1.6% y/y
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Real Earnings (Jan) consensus, +0.3% m/m, previous +0.2% m/m
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Durable Goods Orders (Jan) consensus +1.7% m/m, previous -3.3% m/m
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US ex Trans Durable Goods Orders (Jan) consensus +0.5% m/m, previous -0.8% m/m
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US non-Defense Capital Goods Orders less Aircraft (Jan) consensus +0.3% m/m, previous -0.1% m/m
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) FHFA House Price Index (Dec) previous +5.3% y/y
- (1100 ET/1600 GMT) Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Production Index (Feb) previous -2
- (1100 ET/1600 GMT) Kansas City Fed Composite Index (Feb) previous 3
- (1130 ET/1630 GMT) Cleveland Fed Median CPI (Jan) previous +0.2% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) One-Week Term RRP Operation ($50 bln) at O/N RRP offering rate on Feb 26 +5 bps
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) FRB St. Louis's Bullard in Reuters interview
- (1300 ET/1800 GMT) FRB Atlanta's Lockhart speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook
- (1315 ET/1815 GMT) FRB Dallas's Fisher on Reflections on 10 Years at the Fed: Through the Financial Crisis
FX Recap
EUR/USD remained largely unmoved on Thursday, with markets now focussing on next week's ECB meeting and non-farm payrolls data. Option expiries at 1.1300 (454M), 1.1385 (448M), 1.1505-10 (1.0B), 1.1550 (1.2B).
USD/JPY was seen trading in 118.68-119.09 range so far today and currently trades at 118.73. A break above 119.40 levels could push the pair to 120.00 levels. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 118.89, below which losses could be extended to 118.42 levels. Option expiries at 119.50 (711M), 120.00 (605M).
AUD/USD resumed upward trend in the European session dismissing the initial losses on weak capex data seen in the Asian trading. It is currently trading at 0.7901 levels, after hitting fresh monthly highs at 0.7910 levels. On the top side, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7947 (50-DMA) levels, above which it could extend gains to 0.7979 levels. On the downside, pair is likely to find support at 0.7853 (5-DMA) , and then at 0.7830 (10-DMA) levels. Option expiries at 0.7755 (348M), 0.7885 (343M), 0.7900 (430M), 0.7980 (313M).
EUR/CHF saw similar price action as yesterday. It traded in a tight range yesterday 1.0758-1.0800, while today it traded in 1.0734-1.07985 range. Pair is likely to face strong resistance at 1.0800 and 1.0820-25 are limiting the upside potential while on the downside, support is seen at 1.0718. USD/CHF continues choppy trade around 0.9450/0.9500.
GBP/USD touched 1.5552 during morning European session, its highest since Jan 2. It currently trades at 1.5515, with immediate resistance at 1.5621 (Dec 31 high) and support at 1.5453 (Wed low). Moreover, the US dollar was seen under pressure after Fed's Yellen said in testimony that it was unlikely that economic conditions would permit an interest rate hike for "at least the next couple of FOMC meetings".
