Market Roundup
- Euro hits seven-year low against sterling of 73.40 pence per euro.
- Greek government official says euro zone, Greece have covered 80 pct of ground, still need to agree on 20 pct at Friday's Euro group meeting; Greece is not discussing continuing bailout programme and will maintain this position at Euro group; Greece has done all it should to find mutually beneficial solution with euro zone partners.
- OECD estimates that Italy's potential growth rate stands at just 0.2 pct.
- BOC deputy governor: there is no reason to fear deflation in Canada because inflation expectations are anchored.
- BOE McCafferty: Interest rates could go negative, unhappy about GBP's appreciation.
- Italy Jan Consumer Prices Final mm stays flat at -0.4 % (consensus -0.4 %) vs previous -0.4 %.
- Italy Jan Consumer Prices Final YY stays flat at -0.6 % (consensus -0.6 %) vs previous -0.6 %.
- Italy Dec Industrial Sales YY NSA increases to 0.9 % vs previous -1.60 %.
- Italy Dec Industrial Sales MM SA Increases To 1.4 % Vs Previous -0.60 %.
- European Union Feb Markit Service Flash PMI increases to 53.9 (consensus 53.0) vs previous 52.7.
- European Union Feb Markit Mfg Flash PMI increases to 51.1 (consensus 51.5) vs previous 51.0.
- Germany Feb Markit Comp Flash PMI increases to 54.3 vs previous 53.5.
- Germany Feb Markit Service Flash PMI increases to 55.5 (consensus 54.2) vs previous 54.0.
- Germany Feb Markit Mfg Flash PMI stays flat at 50.9 (consensus 51.5) vs previous 50.9.
- Germany Jan Producer Prices MM increases to -0.6 % (consensus -0.4%) vs previous -0.7 %.
- France Feb Markit Service Flash PMI increases to 53.4 (consensus 49.8) vs previous 49.4.
- France Feb Markit Mfg Flash PMI decreases to 47.7 (consensus 49.5) vs previous 49.2.
- United Kingdom Jan Retail Sales MM decreases to -0.3 % (consensus -0.2 %) vs previous 0.4 %.
- United Kingdom Jan Retail Sales YY increases to +5.4 % (consensus 5.9 %) vs previous 4.3 %.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) USLabor Dept. issues annual benchmark revisions to U.S. CPI/new seasonal factors from previous 5 yrs.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) US Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash Feb) consensus 53.6, previous 53.9.
Key Events Ahead
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Euro zone finance ministers meeting on Greece debt.
- (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.800 bln).
FX Recap
EUR/USD slipped lower to 1.1302, as markets awaited the release of euro zone manufacturing and service sector data. The pair was also weighed by the talks between Eurozone finance ministers over Greece's debt. However, it subsequently consolidated and is now trading around 1.1332. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 1.1449 (Feb 17 high) and on the flipside, next support is seen at 1.1277 (Feb 11 low).Option expiries at 1.1350 (587M), 114.60 (721M), 1.1500 (582M).
USD/JPY continues trading in tight 119.10-118.86 range in Asian session. Strong technical support and bids seen ahead of 118.00 at 118.42 (Thurs' low), 118.17 (Kijun-sen), 118.10 is 61.8% of 116.64-120.48 post NFP highs. Option expiries at 118.35 (440M), 119.55 (1.4BLN), 120.50 (1BLN).
AUD/USD broke above 0.7810 and hit 0.7846; it's highest since February 6. However, the AUD was unable to sustain its bullish trend above 0.7840 and currently trades at 0.7831. The pair is likely to post the strongest close for February. Option expiries at 0.7635-50 (1.8BLN), 0.7840-50 (2.8BLN).
GBP/USD edged lower on disappointing retail sales figures and hit 1.5353 during European morning session, its lowest since February 18and currently trades at 1.5368. On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.5206 (Feb 12) and on the upside, resistance is seen at 1.5483 (Feb 18). Option expiries at 1.5500 (661M), 1.5600 (357M).
USD/CHF continued its uptrend and hit a fresh high at 0.9534. CHF remains under pressure against the US dollar ahead of the Greek debt talks. Pair's next resistance is seen at 0.9550 levels and above which gains could be extended to 0.9580 levels. On the downside, next support is seen at 0.9480 levels and further below at 0.9400 levels. Option expiries at 0.9375 (350M).
