Zloty volatility surges on election results

Oct 28, 2015 08:42 am UTC| Commentary

EUR-PLN spiked sharply over the past couple of days, surpassing 4.29 at one point during trading yesterday, after election results showed that right-wing Law Justice (PiS) won a stronger-than-expected majority in both...

Low inflation fuels rate cut speculation in Australia

Oct 28, 2015 07:55 am UTC| Commentary

The RBA will not be amused. Inflation figures for the third quarter clearly disappointed. What is particularly worrying is the fact that the seasonally adjusted trimmed mean, which the RBA uses as a measure of...

Subdued Euro area inflation going forward

Oct 28, 2015 07:36 am UTC| Commentary

Economic theory suggests a strong pass-through between ULC and core prices. Therefore, given the recent developments in ULC and the lags between ULC and core inflation, core HICP inflation is set to grow by 1.2% in...

Pro-cyclical improvement in Euro area's labour productivity pushes ULC lower

Oct 28, 2015 07:31 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Unit labour cost (ULC is a measure of total compensation adjusted for labour productivity growth) increased by 0.8% yoy in Q2 15, marking its slowest rise since Q2 11. ULC is moderating on the back of higher growth in...

ECB could affect timing of EUR/CZK floor

Oct 28, 2015 07:31 am UTC| Commentary

The ECBs QE may affect the timing of when the floor of EUR/CZK is scrapped. The CNB will do what it can to prevent the CZK from strengthening too much once the floor has been removed. Partly, the CNB believes that the...

CNB to keep its EUR/CZK floor in place until H2 16

Oct 28, 2015 07:15 am UTC| Commentary

After the ECB meeting last week, more QE are expected to be announced at the ECB meeting in December together with a deposit rate cut. More ECB easing is a factor that will keep the CNB worried about the potential...

Brazil government’s international liquidity position seems exceedingly strong

Oct 28, 2015 07:13 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The Brazilian public sector could in principle pay down the entire external debt and still own three-quarters of the international reserves now sitting on the central banks balance sheet. Since it is very unlikely that...