Fed outlook

Oct 19, 2015 07:08 am UTC| Commentary

The market has agreed that the Fed will not hike interest rates this year and will raise rates only once or twice next year. That might seem to be all that is relevant for the FX market on this subject. However, it is not...

China's GDP growth likely to be 6.8% in Q4

Oct 19, 2015 07:04 am UTC| Commentary

As the higher frequency indicators have suggested, the Chinese economy struggled in Q3, when it grew by 6.9% y/y, lower than the 7.0% in Q1 and Q2. This was in line with market consensus but lower than our expectation of...

A dovish message likely from ECB once again

Oct 19, 2015 07:01 am UTC| Commentary

The ECB has committed quite firmly to the view that policy rates have bottomed, Governor Erkki Liikanen just recently confirmed this view.Of course, when the facts change, also ECB policy makers can change their mind....

Euro Area's inflation rate likely to rise in Q4

Oct 19, 2015 06:58 am UTC| Commentary

At the ECBs September meeting, "heightened uncertainties related to the external environment" provided the background for Mario Draghis dovish tone.Since then, long-term EUR bond yields have fallen, the nominal effective...

More ECB QE in the pipeline

Oct 19, 2015 06:53 am UTC| Commentary

The ECB is likely to announce a QE extension beyond September 2016. That could be done during the policy meeting on 3 December, but the ECB might not yet see a need to do it just two weeks ahead of an FOMC meeting where...

Russian president's latest initiative

Oct 19, 2015 06:53 am UTC| Commentary

On Friday President Putin again called for greater use of sub-national currencies in mutual settlements in CIS countries. By sub-national, he really means either to increase RUB usage or at least to use the USD less as a...

Fed’s inaction complicates matters for the ECB

Oct 19, 2015 06:51 am UTC| Commentary

Not only did the Fed keep rates unchanged in September, it also gave the impression that it does not trust its own forecast of rising inflation very much.Uncertainty about the future Fed policy has increased. A weaker EUR...