Rally in AUD/USD to extend further

Oct 20, 2015 04:43 am UTC| Commentary

For AUD/USD, the 5.7% rally this month on the back of higher commodity prices marks a reversal from three successive months of losses. The widening in the AU/US 2y rate differential to back over 120bp since the September...

Poland's lacklustre industrial production and retail sales

Oct 20, 2015 04:37 am UTC| Commentary

Polands September real sector indicators were uninspiring (Figure 1). For industrial production, the 4.1% y/y reading was better than expectations. Confusingly, the headline figure shows a deceleration, while the SWDA...

Russia's economy likely near bottom of the cycle

Oct 20, 2015 04:31 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Russias September real sector indicators provide some encouragement. Production indicators signal that the decline may have hit bottom and production is no longer declining. However, household consumption indicators imply...

Australian economy to post 6.9% growth in 2015

Oct 20, 2015 04:28 am UTC| Commentary

Australia 90-day bill futures have rallied across the curve since last week, implying a higher chance of a 25bp rate cut by the RBA at some point over the next six to eight months. March 2016 has declined from 2.01% to...

Effective euro will become a headwind to Euro area's inflation

Oct 20, 2015 04:26 am UTC| Commentary

The latest appreciation of the euro is a headwind to inflation and Draghi is likely to attempt to talk the euro down at the meeting in October by mentioning the divergence in monetary policy in the euro area and the...

ECB members not on brink of announcing further easing

Oct 20, 2015 04:24 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The decline in Euro areas headline inflation increases the already high pressure on the ECB and with 5Y5Y market-based inflation expectations trading below 1.6% for the first time since February, it could be that the ECB...

RBA likely to lower its growth forecast for 2016

Oct 20, 2015 04:20 am UTC| Commentary

The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board for October provided no real encouragement for markets that a rate adjustment is imminent.Firstly there was a distinctly more upbeat tone around the...