Norges Bank uncertainty premium visible

Sep 30, 2015 16:10 pm UTC| Commentary

Norges Bank FX transactions statistics released today show that foreign banks (proxy for speculative flows) net sold NOK 3.2bn in the Norwegian currency last week. The net selling primarily reflects how Norges Bank...

Eurozone inflation returns below zero

Sep 30, 2015 15:41 pm UTC| Commentary

Inflation in the euro area returned below 0% in August, ending a run of four successive months of positive inflation since May. The fall to -0.1% yoy from 0.1% in July marks a second straight drop that coincides with the...

US ADP employment report shows moderate pace of September job growth

Sep 30, 2015 15:14 pm UTC| Commentary

The ADP employment report for September showed private payroll growth of 200k on the month, slightly above consensus expectations (190k) and broadly in line with recent trends. The ADP estimate of August employment growth...

What would it take to break the EUR/USD range?

Sep 30, 2015 15:09 pm UTC| Commentary

EUR/USD has been in a range since the Fed pushed against the strong USD in March. It reached its minimum for the year, slightly below 1.05, on 13 March. It has since fluctuated between 1.10 and 1.15. The ECB has found ways...

Brazil's external debt situation has worsened, but remains manageable

Sep 30, 2015 15:02 pm UTC| Commentary

Brazils external debt is not among the worst in the EM world and is now decreasing in dollar terms -probably in response to worsening investment demand and financial conditions. However, the external debt to GDP ratio...

Chicago PMI suggest a contraction in Midwest activity

Sep 30, 2015 14:54 pm UTC| Commentary

The Chicago PMI fell sharply to 48.7 in September from 54.4 last month, well below both consensus expectations (53.0) and forecast (53.5). Production (43.6, previous: 59) after having recovered over the summer. New orders...

Inflation and employment data heap pressure on ECB

Sep 30, 2015 12:20 pm UTC| Commentary

The euro-zones unemployment rate was revised up from 10.9% to 11.0% in July and it remained at that level in August, well above its 1999-2007 average of 8.8%. Among the regions largest economies, the unemployment rate fell...