Market doubts September hike, leading to continued USD weakness

Aug 21, 2015 06:50 am UTC| Commentary

Despite overall robust US data the USD continued to depreciate yesterday. The FOMC minutes have created too much uncertainty on the markets. By now, a majority of market participants regard a rate hike in September as...

CNY devaluation impacts on Commodity currencies

Aug 21, 2015 06:48 am UTC| Commentary

CNY depreciation also likely will accentuate weakness in commodity currencies and we forecast AUD, NZD and ZAR will depreciate 7-8% versus the USD by the middle of next year. A reduction in Chinese demand for commodities,...

Mexico inflation expectations for 2016 unlikely to change

Aug 21, 2015 06:42 am UTC| Commentary

Mexicos inflation remains at historical lows and a slower growth path implies more time for demand side pressures to arise. Therefore, Banxico will be reluctant to hike in September (considering that the probability of a...

What a weaker CNY means for FX globally

Aug 21, 2015 06:41 am UTC| Commentary

A weaker CNY versus the USD combined with risks of slower Chinese growth imply several relevant consequences for currencies globally. In a nutshell, the greatest impact is seen on emerging Asian and commodity currencies,...

Near-term risks to South African growth likely tilted to downside

Aug 21, 2015 06:37 am UTC| Commentary

Near-term risks to South Africas growth remain tilted to the downside, amid an increasingly embattled mining sector and a constrained consumer. In the mining sector, about 12% of PGM production is at risk over the next 24...

South Africa's Q2 15 GDP likely to be 0.5% q/q saar

Aug 21, 2015 06:33 am UTC| Commentary

The production side of Africas economy has also shown clear signs of strain during the second quarter as electricity shortages continue to bite. In the manufacturing sector, output fell in Q2 for the second consecutive...

Poland growth stalls

Aug 21, 2015 06:27 am UTC| Commentary

In Poland, lacklustre Q2 GDP growth has been followed by disappointing IP and retail sales in July, decelerating to 3.9% and 2.9% y/y, respectively, seasonally adjusted. This implies that GDP growth can continue around 3%...