Daily Economic Outlook: 21 August, 2015
Aug 21, 2015 04:18 am UTC| Commentary
The euro area PMIs have held relatively firm in recent months, even as Greek concerns intensified. In fact, despite modest declines in both the manufacturing and services PMIs for July, their respective levels remain...
Further TRY, RUB and BRL depreciation likely
Aug 21, 2015 04:12 am UTC| Commentary
10y inflation breakevens have jumped 50 basis points in the aftermath. The RUB has continued depreciating more or less in line with oil price declines. Besides the effect oil prices have on the RUB equilibrium value, the...
Aug 21, 2015 04:04 am UTC| Commentary
Asian markets traded with heavy losses for a second-consecutive session on Friday, with several key global events diminishing risk sentiment. Political tensions in Turkey, Greece, and Korea also added to the general...

EM vulnerabilities return as the USD rises
Aug 21, 2015 03:47 am UTC| Commentary
EM private sector balance sheet mismatches (ZAR, TRY and MYR), foreign positioning in local currency bonds (CEE, IDR, ZAR and MXN), a dependence on foreign financing (CEE) and the lack of foreign currency reserves (TRY,...
Further CNY weakness, buy USD/CNH call spread
Aug 21, 2015 03:43 am UTC| Commentary
The market continues to take stock of Chinas move early last week to adjust the fixing mechanism for USD/CNY. Although spot USD/CNY has been stable in the aftermath and has kept the fixes relatively unchanged, this has...
UST outlook justifies looking for extension trades
Aug 21, 2015 03:37 am UTC| Commentary
The recent US moves justify looking for select opportunities to extend duration, taking advantage of steep spread curves. Although a Fed hike in September still seems a realistic scenario, the effect of such a move on...
July FOMC minutes suggest rising risk of delay in start of hiking cycle
Aug 21, 2015 03:33 am UTC| Commentary
Since the July FOMC meeting, crude oil has sold off ~15%, the broad trade-weighted dollar has strengthened 1.6%, the Feds measure of 5y5y breakevens has fallen roughly 15bp, and the y/y average hourly earnings print has...