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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

German Auto Suppliers Turn Bearish as Investment and Jobs Shift Overseas

Germanys automotive suppliers are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the industrys outlook, with more companies expecting business conditions to worsen over the next 12 months than those anticipating improvement. A...

Asian Currencies Steady as Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Decision and US-Iran Deal Details

Most Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar remained stable as investors awaited further details on a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the outcome of the Federal Reserves...

Oil Prices Ease as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Peace Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Global oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous two sessions as investors continued to evaluate the impact of a newly announced U.S.-Iran peace agreement. However, uncertainty surrounding the...

Asian Stocks Advance as Nikkei Nears Record High Ahead of Fed Decision

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher on Wednesday, led by gains in Japan and Singapore, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserves latest policy decision. Strong performance in technology and semiconductor stocks...

ASX Proposes New Share Dilution Limits for Public Takeovers

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has unveiled significant proposed reforms aimed at strengthening shareholder protections and limiting share dilution during public takeovers and mergers. Under the draft rules...

Politics

Jamaica in Talks With U.S. to Accept Third-Country Deportees Under New Migration Agreement

Jamaica is negotiating a new migration agreement with the United States that would allow the Caribbean nation to temporarily receive third-country migrants deported by U.S. authorities, according to Deputy Prime Minister...

Trump Criticizes Israel's Lebanon Strikes, Urges Greater Civilian Protection

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly criticized Israels military operations in Lebanon, questioning the necessity of destroying entire apartment buildings while targeting Hezbollah militants. Speaking during the G7 summit...

Russian Strikes Kill Four in Eastern and Southeastern Ukraine, Trigger Fires and Damage

Russian attacks on cities in eastern and southeastern Ukraine killed at least four people and injured several others late Tuesday, according to local officials and prosecutors. The latest wave of strikes highlights the...

Brazil Supreme Court Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro Over U.S. Lobbying Efforts

Brazils Supreme Court has convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, for seeking foreign interference in legal proceedings involving his father. In a unanimous decision on Tuesday, a...

US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Extends Peace Talks and Eases Oil Trade Restrictions

The United States and Iran have reached an interim agreement aimed at extending peace efforts in the Middle East and reducing tensions following months of conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the deal...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Chinese Social Media Giant Xiaohongshu Eyes Hong Kong IPO at Over $70 Billion Valuation

Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu, internationally known as RedNote, is reportedly preparing for a Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) that could value the company at more than $70 billion. According to a Wall...

Samsung Gains Interest from BYD, Google, AMD as AI Chip Demand Strains TSMC Capacity

Samsung Electronics is attracting growing attention from major global technology companies as demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing continues to exceed available capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co....

Kingboard Holdings Shares Surge After HK$11.77 Billion Block Trade to Expand PCB and AI Supply Chain Business

Kingboard Holdings Ltd. (HK:0148), one of Chinas leading circuit board and laminate manufacturers, announced on Wednesday that its subsidiary, Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (HK:1888), has entered into a block trade...

SoftBank Shares Drop as OpenAI Losses and Rising Costs Spark Investor Concerns

SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO: 9984) shares fell sharply on Wednesday after new reports highlighted growing concerns about OpenAIs financial performance and increasing cash burn, raising questions about the value of SoftBanks...

G7 Explores AI Access Deal With U.S. Amid Anthropic Restrictions

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations are discussing a proposal that could give selected trusted partners access to advanced artificial intelligence models developed by U.S. companies such as Anthropic, according to...