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FxWirePro: Unwind and stay long in Scandis on central bank policies

Jan 09, 2018 10:41 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Long BRLNOK trades have to be unwound, this LatAm/Scandi trade was opened to fetch carry in a lower beta approach. This theme still looks to be attractive, trade particularly now seems vulnerable to rising oil prices as...

FxWirePro: How to approach 2018, a depressed vols scenario? ATMF vs ATMS call spreads in two EM currency crosses

Jan 09, 2018 08:59 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The global picture on the volatility front hasnt really changed in recent months. Implied and realized volatility is still hovering in their low or very low percentiles. Long carry through the 2018 year ahead outlook...

FxWirePro: Cable upside potential more likely in Q1 but unwise to disregard bearish risk – Options straps for smart hedging

Jan 09, 2018 07:06 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Even with sterling making new lows in trade-weighted terms (nominal and real), GBPUSD meandering in a 1.30-1.35 range is foreseen for most H1 of 2018. However, a slump to GBPUSD 1.25 would require, above all else, a...

FxWirePro: Spot out likely and unlikely drivers of Sterling’s tantrum in 2018 and deploy 3-way straddles to keep a check on seesaw GBP/AUD oscillation

Jan 08, 2018 13:03 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We expect three years of real GDP growth below 1% in 2018-2020, averaging 0.8% per annum, about a quarter of the worlds average growth rate. On a positive note, that ought to be enough to shrink the current account deficit...

FxWirePro: 2017 a year of Brexit speculations, NAFTA in 2018 to offer carry-relative value structures

Jan 08, 2018 09:49 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

As we have done with the Brexit-driven long GBP vol theme the last year, NAFTA or BoC-related CAD-volatility seems to be the best isolated via easy-to-carry relative value structures in 2018. CAD-denominated...

FxWirePro: LATAM FX hedging intricacies with pinch of salt

Jan 08, 2018 08:52 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Fundamentals currently seem uber-supportive for EMFX space. However, as this opinion has become the consensus, it raises red flags. A simple, and perhaps naive, parallel to previous cycles suggests that 2018 may resemble...

FxWirePro: What leads and what lags TRY in Q1’2018? OTC calls to hedge USD/TRY FX risks

Jan 08, 2018 07:32 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In Turkey, the CBRT disappointed consensus and market expectations of 100bp of hikes to the late liquidity window (to 13.25%) by hiking only 50bp to 12.75%. The 50bps rate hike is not sufficed to stabilize the currency, as...

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Economy

Holiday Economic Questions: What Bank of America Says You Should Expect

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave says this years holiday gatherings may bring more than cold weatherthey may spark tough conversations about inflation, housing, interest rates, and the broader U.S. economy. In a...

Russia Stocks Close Flat as MOEX Hits 1-Month High

Russian equities ended Saturdays session flat, with the MOEX Russia Index holding steady and touching a fresh one-month high despite muted market activity. Investors saw little movement across major sectors, as several key...

Vietnam’s November Trade Sees Monthly Decline but Strong Year-on-Year Growth

Vietnam recorded a notable month-on-month decline in trade activity in November, according to new data from the National Statistics Office (NSO). Exports fell 7.1% from October, reaching $39.07 billion, while imports...

Austria’s AA Credit Rating Affirmed as Fitch Highlights Stable Outlook

Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Austrias Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at AA with a Stable Outlook, underscoring the countrys strong economic fundamentals despite rising fiscal pressures. According to the...

Fed Meeting Sparks Division as Markets Brace for Possible Rate Cut

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and contentious in years, with investors focused on how divided policymakers are over a potential interest-rate cut and the signals...

Politics

Southwest Airlines Has $11 Million Fine Waived as USDOT Cites Operational Improvements

The U.S. Transportation Department has waived an $11 million penalty previously imposed on Southwest Airlines, finalizing the airlines $140 million settlement tied to its massive December 2022 holiday travel disruption....

U.S.-EU Tensions Rise After $140 Million Fine on Elon Musk’s X Platform

A growing rift between the United States and Europe deepened after the European Union issued a $140 million fine against Elon Musks social media platform X under the Digital Services Act. The penalty, which EU regulators...

Trump Signs Executive Order to Strengthen U.S. Food Supply Chain Security

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a new executive order aimed at strengthening the nations food supply chain by targeting potential risks linked to price fixing, market manipulation, and anti-competitive practices....

Boeing Executive Says Trump’s Equity Stake Plan Won’t Target Major Defense Contractors

Boeing Defense, Space Security CEO Steve Parker clarified that President Donald Trumps proposal for the U.S. government to take equity stakes in strategic industries is not aimed at major defense contractors. Speaking at...

Zelenskiy Describes “Substantive” Call With Trump Envoys as Ukraine, U.S. Explore Peace Path

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that he held a long and substantive phone call with U.S. President Donald Trumps special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner, emphasizing that...

Science

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Trump and Merck KGaA Partner to Slash IVF Drug Costs and Expand Fertility Coverage

U.S. President Donald Trump and German pharmaceutical company Merck KGaA have announced a groundbreaking deal aimed at lowering the cost of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments while boosting access to fertility care in...

Technology

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Denies Reports of $800 Billion Valuation Fundraise

Elon Musk has publicly refuted recent media claims suggesting that SpaceX is seeking to raise new capital at an $800 billion valuation. In a post shared on X, Musk clarified that the reports circulating online were...

Taiwan Opposition Criticizes Plan to Block Chinese App Rednote Over Security Concerns

Taiwans political landscape heated up after the government announced a plan to suspend access to the Chinese social media platform Rednoteknown as Xiaohongshufor one year. The interior ministry said the proposed ban stems...

EU Prepares Antitrust Probe Into Meta’s AI Integration on WhatsApp

The European Commission is reportedly preparing to launch a new antitrust investigation into Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) over the companys recent rollout of artificial intelligence features within WhatsApp....

Sam Altman Reportedly Explored Funding for Rocket Venture in Potential Challenge to SpaceX

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly explored raising significant capital to acquire or partner with a rocket company, a move that could have created direct competition with Elon Musks SpaceX. According to a report from the...

Wikipedia Pushes for AI Licensing Deals as Jimmy Wales Calls for Fair Compensation

Wikipedia is seeking additional licensing deals with major technology companies to address the growing financial burden caused by artificial intelligence firms heavily scraping its platform, according to co-founder Jimmy...