Market Roundup
• U.K. NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jan): 0.3%, -0.1% previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,862K, 1,850K forecast, 1,841K previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 219.50K, 212.50K previous.
•US Existing Home Sales (Jan): 3.91M, 4.16M forecast, 4.27M previous.
•US Existing Home Sales MoM (Jan): -8.4%, 4.4% previous.
•US Natural Gas Storage: -249B, -256B forecast, -360B previous.
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.630% previous.
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.630% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 China House Prices YoY (YoY) (Jan)-2.7% previous.
• 02:00 New Zealand Inflation Expectations QoQ (QoQ) 2.3% previous.
• 02:00 Australian Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) (Feb)53.89 previous.
•China Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) (Feb)
72.75 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded flat on Thursday after data showed a less-than-expected decrease in the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment, consistent with economists' view that the labor market was stabilizing.That data was on top of indicators showing a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate amid strong jobs growth in January and weak retail sales in December. Inflation figures are due on Friday. Markets are now pricing in a 92% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, although the probability of a rate cut at its June meeting is now at nearly 50%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed against the dollar on Thursday even as data showed that the UK economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2025 and markets took stock of Britain's simmering political crisis.Some tensions about Starmer's future appear to have eased, with the prime minister on Tuesday pledging never to walk away from his job. Britain's economy barely grew in the final quarter of 2025 as activity fared worse than initially estimated during the run-up to finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget, official figures showed on Thursday.Gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in the October-to-December period, the same slow pace as in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as Canadian dollar weakened as equity and commodity markets fell.U.S. stock indexes fell on a renewed selloff in software and technology shares, while strong labor market data tempered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Oil prices, a key driver of Canada’s export revenues, fell 3% to $62.69 per barrel after the International Energy Agency revised down its global oil demand forecast for 2026Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data released on Wednesday reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, putting pressure on gold and silver prices.Investors will also closely watch the U.S. inflation data due on Friday, as it may offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3664 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3718 (Feb 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3492(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3403 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as dollar found some footing after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report eroded near-term rate cut expectations, while caution ahead of inflation data at the end of the week dented the dollar.The U.S. economy created almost twice as many jobs in January as expected, Wednesday's report showed, allaying some concern over a softening labour market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points in March had risen to about 20% before the jobs data, but retreated to about 5%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. U.S. inflation data is due on Friday and will be the next test of market views on interest rate cuts.Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.65(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.89 (Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 151.29 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Thursday, reversing earlier gains that had lifted markets to record highs, as losses in financial and industrial stocks weighed on sentiment amid a wave of corporate earnings reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.33 percent.
Wall Street indexes dropped sharply on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 2% as investors accelerated selling in technology stocks and moved away from transport shares over concerns about AI disruption.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.33 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.57 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to near a one-week low on Thursday as strong U.S. labour data reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a drop below $5,000 an ounce triggering further selling pressure.
Spot gold slipped 2.8% lower to $4,938.69 per ounce by 01:42 p.m. ET (18:42 GMT). Bullion slipped to its lowest level since February 6 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2.9% lower at $4,948.4 per ounce.
Oil prices declined on Thursday amid weaker demand, easing concerns over renewed Middle East tensions, and expectations of higher supply.
Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.52 a barrel down $1.88, or 2.71%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $62.84 a barrel, down $1.79, or 2.77%.
