Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.059%, 2.053% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.010%, 2.011% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.029%, 2.015% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 49.6, 48.2 forecast, 47.7 previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 52.5, 52.2 forecast, 52.2 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct): 46.0, 45.3 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Oct): 49.4, 48.9 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 48.7, 49.4 forecast, 49.1 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct): 58.0, 62.4 forecast, 61.9 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.815%, 3.730% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.700%, 3.640% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.3 forecast, 48.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•03:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 3.60% forecast, 3.60% previous
•03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
•04:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statements
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD :The euro slipped lower on Monday as dollar firmed on doubts about the outlook for another Fed rate cut this year.The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled that may be the last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves without a more robust picture of the economy.With government releases missing, investors will be left with limited non-government sources of economic data, including ADP employment data, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting.On the data front, Euro zone manufacturing stagnated in October as new orders stalled and employment declined, even as output rose for an eighth straight month. The final HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, up slightly from 49.8 in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1551(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors digested the latest UK manufacturing PMI data and awaited Thursday's Bank of England meeting. The BoE is expected to pause its rate-cutting cycle on Thursday, though recent softer inflation and wage data could strengthen the case for a cut. British factories reported their strongest month in a year in October, though the improvement was largely attributable to Jaguar Land Rover resuming production after a cyberattack, the S&P Global PMI data showed. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for Britain's manufacturing sector climbed to 49.7 from 46.2 in September and up slightly from a provisional estimate for October of 49.6.The headline PMI index for Britain's manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 9% of total economic output in the country, has been in negative territory since October 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3288(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3119(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3054(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a near three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as recent widening in the gap between Canadian and U.S. short-term yields weighed on the loonie.The Canadian 2-year yield was trading 119 basis points below the equivalent U.S. rate, compared to a gap of 92 basis points in late August.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate to a three-year low of 2.25% to support the economy which has been badly hampered by the U.S.-led trade war.On the data front, Canada's manufacturing sector eased in October as output and new orders declined at a slower pace. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.6 last month from 47.7 in September, posting its highest level since January. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.4055 per U.S. dollar, after touching its weakest intraday level since October 14 at 1.4075. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4080(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4100(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 14010(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3950(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near multi-month highs on Monday, while the yen stayed under pressure as investors weighed mixed signals from the Bank of Japan. Market uncertainty persists over the timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike, with political and fiscal developments adding to policy ambiguity. Speculation is mounting that newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will pursue aggressive fiscal stimulus to spur growth and ease household burdens from rising living costs — a move that could restrict the BoJ’s scope for tightening. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that a rate hike could come as early as December, but markets were unimpressed by the central bank’s cautious tone, especially against the backdrop of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The yen’s weakness has drawn renewed warnings from Japanese authorities, with the currency nearing levels that previously triggered interventions in 2022 and 2024 to stem its decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Monday as investors assessed fresh earnings reports, with auto shares supported by optimism over Dutch chipmaker Nexperia’s plans to resume shipments from its China plants.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.47 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.14 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Monday, lifted by gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks, even as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook grew amid a lack of key U.S. economic data.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.48 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.17 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were steady around $4,000 per ounce on Monday as investors awaited U.S. private payroll data this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,002.35 an ounce by 1:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,014.
Oil prices were steady on Monday as markets weighed OPEC+’s latest supply hike against plans to pause output increases in early 2026, amid concerns over a potential supply glut and weak Asian factory data.
Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $64.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 7 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $61.05.
