Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY) 5.2%, 5.0% previous
• US House Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 2.3%, 2.4% previous
• US House Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%,0.1%forecast,0.0% previous
• US House Price Index (Aug) 435.3, 433.6 previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, -0.1% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) -0.6%, -0.3% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug) 1.6% 1.4% forecast,1.8% previous
• US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 94.6,93.4 forecast ,95.6 previous
• US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Oct) -4, -11 forecast , -17 previous
• US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Oct) 4 ,-20 previous
• US Richmond Services Index (Oct) 4 ,1 previous
• US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Oct) -6.4, -2.4 previous
• US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Oct) -9.4, -5.6 previous
• US 52-Week Bill Auction 3.445%,3.540% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT
• 00:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q3) 3.0%forecast,2.1% previous
• 00:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 1.1%forecast,0.7% previous
• 00:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Q3) 141.70 previous
• 00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q3) 2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
• 00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.8% forecast,0.6% previous
• 00:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.10% 3.00% previous
• 00:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Q3) 2.7% previous
• 00:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro climbed to a one-week high on Tuesday as the dollar weakened ahead of a busy week of major central bank meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve will lead the series, beginning its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, followed by decisions from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank. Markets are almost certain the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing a 96.7% probability. Expectations of a softer rate path from the Fed, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions, have lifted investor sentiment and supported risk assets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower against the dollar on Tuesday as renewed fiscal concerns pressured sterling following reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) plans to cut its productivity growth forecast.Britain’s budget watchdog is likely to reduce its productivity projection by approximately 0.3%, implying a £20 billion shortfall in government finances.The downgrade heightens pressure ahead of next week’s Bank of England policy meeting and the autumn budget.The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.00% at its November 6 meeting, with a slight majority of economists surveyed anticipate no additional rate cuts this year.Traders continue to price in a 35% chance of a BoE rate cut at the next meeting, with money markets expecting the base rate to fall around 20 basis points below the current 4% level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3379(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3469(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3264(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as dollar weakned ahead of Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. Investors will be keen to get any details on the rate outlook, especially given that the U.S. government has been shut down for nearly a month, delaying crucial economic data and forcing traders to rely on private releases and corporate announcements.A preliminary estimate of an ADP National Employment Report, showed the U.S. economy added an average of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 11. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3995(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4050(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3936(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3902(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday as the yen strengthened after comments from a Japanese minister and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent eased some concerns about more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy in the country.Japan's new economic revitalization minister, Minoru Kiuchi said that Japan can boost its long-term potential growth by stimulating demand and keeping the labor market tight while being mindful of the need for fiscal discipline. Kiuchi also said that the government is closely monitoring the impact of currency moves on Japan's economy.The comments came during a meeting with Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama, in the latest swipe at the slow pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday after three straight sessions of record highs, as investors turned their attention from U.S.–China trade optimism to a busy slate of corporate earnings reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.27 percent.
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs on Tuesday, lifted by Nvidia shares after news it will develop AI supercomputers for the U.S. Energy Department, while optimism grew ahead of key earnings from megacap companies this week.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.34 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.23 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as optimism over progress in U.S.–China trade talks reduced demand for the safe-haven metal, while investors shifted their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,964.35 per ounce as of 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since October 6. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to settle at $3,983.1 per ounce.
Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, extending losses for a third consecutive session as investors weighed the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and prospects of an OPEC+ output increase on global supply.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.22, or 1.9%, to $64.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.16, or 1.9%, at $60.15.
