Market Roundup
• US Exports (Sep): $267.90B, forecast $271.80B
• US Imports (Sep): $352.30B, forecast $342.20B
• US Trade Balance (Sep): -$84.40B, forecast -$83.80B -$70.80B previous
• Canada Exports (Sep): $63.88B, $63.96B previous
• Canada Imports (Sep): $65.15B, $65.43B previous
• Canada Trade Balance (Sep): -$1.26B, -$0.90B forecast, -$1.47B previous
• US Redbook (YoY): 6.0%, 5.6% previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct): 54.1, 54.3 forecast, 54.0 previous
• US Services PMI (Oct): 55.0, 55.3 forecast, 55.2 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Oct): 57.2, 59.9 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct): 53.0, 48.0 forecast, 48.1 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Oct): 57.4, 58.0 forecast, 59.4 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 56.0, 53.8 forecast, 54.9 previous
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct): 58.1, forecast 58.0, s 59.4 previous
• US 10-Year Note Auction: 4.347%, 4.066% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 2.4%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia RBA Chart Pack Release
•00:30 Japan Oct Services PMI 49.3 forecast ,53.1previous
• 01:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Oct 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday dollar eased as markets awaited early indications of the outcome of the knife-edge U.S. presidential election. One of the most unusual elections in modern U.S. history could yield starkly different implications for tax and trade policy as well as for U.S. institutions depending on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris prevails.The results could rattle assets around the world and lead to broad financial fallout, including on the outlook for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar.Investors are wary of any unclear or contested result that could fuel volatility stemming from any lasting uncertainty about the political backdrop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0936(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0873(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825 (1st Nov low)
GBP/USD: The pound rose above 1.3000 level on Tuesday as traders awaited the outcome of a U.S. election that has remained too close to call for weeks, while also keeping an eye on the Bank of England's interest rate decision later in the week. Recent opinion polls have shown Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump virtually neck and neck, meaning the outcome might not be clear for days, or even weeks after voting ends. The BoE is expected to deliver a quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, much the same as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivers its own policy decision the same day.But markets reflect a belief among traders that UK rates will fall more slowly than those in the United States or the euro zone in the coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3052(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3229(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3003(5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2954(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose to an 11-day high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as investors adjusted their currency risk ahead of the U.S. elections and following data showing growth in Canada's services sector. Republican former President Donald Trump, who is in a neck-and-neck race with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency, has proposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil.The nation posted a higher-than-expected trade deficit of C$1.26 billion ($908 million) in September mainly on account of lower prices which pulled down the value of exports but overall volumes of outbound shipments rose.Separate data showed that Canada's services economy expanded for the first time in five months in October. The headline business activity index rose to 50.4 from 46.4 in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3870 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3903 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3800(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3738 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen as investors cautiously awaited the outcome of the high-stakes U.S. presidential election. The U.S. election kept investors on edge as opinion polls showed Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris virtually tied in their bid to win the White House. Election day comes to a close following an intensely acrimonious campaign, marked by assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and the surprising withdrawal of President Joe Biden in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Markets are on edge about how Trump's protectionist trade policies in particular could stoke inflation and hit exports in the world's biggest consumer market with bonds and the dollar expected to move on the outcome of the election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.72(5SMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.47(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.48(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 eked out minor gains on Tuesday led by gains in industrials as investors assessed a slew of downbeat earnings and kept a close eye on voting in a tightly contested U.S. presidential election.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.48 percent.
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher in a broad rally on Tuesday after data signaled a solid economy, but investors braced for volatile trading this week as voting was underway in an extremely tight U.S. presidential election.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.02% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.23% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.42% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Tuesday as investors braced for political tensions after opinion polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the U.S. presidential election where chances of a contested result are high.
Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,740.96 an ounce by 01:54 p.m. ET (1852 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $2,749.70.
Oil prices edged up about 1% on Tuesday with a storm expected to cut U.S. output in the Gulf of Mexico and as the U.S. dollar weakened on Election Day with polls showing America's presidential race exceptionally close.
Brent crude oil futures rose 45 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $75.53 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 52 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $71.99.
