Market Roundup
• China Imports (YoY) (Sep) 0.3%,0.5% previous
• China Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) 81.71B, 91.02B previous
• China Trade Balance (Sep) 582.62B,649.34B previous
• China Imports (Sep) -0.50M ,0.00M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.668%
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:30 BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro dipped against dollar on Monday as investors awaited fresh catalyst for further movement. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates on Thursday, with over 90% of economists polled predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.25% after September's inflation dipped below 2%; most expect another 25 bpscut in December. The tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference will be key for expectations. The euro zone's data highlights are final September HICP,August trade and industrial production, and the German ZEW survey. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0920 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed against dollar on Monday as traders await a key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance. Last week's U.S. data showing slightly hotter-than-expected consumer inflation but also higher weekly jobless claims have left intact expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December.Traders next have on their radar Thursday's retail sales and jobless claims data in the United States, and a policy review by the European Central Bank.Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks later on Monday. He is one of the voices who supports a larger rate cut because he is now worried the pace of price increases is undershooting the Fed's target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3127(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3060(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped on Monday after Beijing's fiscal stimulus briefing lacked details and disappointed investors, although a tepid response in Chinese markets likely limited the downside. The much-anticipated briefing from China's Ministry of Finance on Saturday failed to unveil the specific scale of the expected fiscal stimulus, although the minister did pledge to significantly increase debt to help the economy. The Antipodean currencies are often traded as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan as Beijing is the top trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. The kiwi dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.6091, after losing 0.8% last week Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as investors focussed on U.S. Federal Reserve officials' comments for further rate cut cues. Investors will watch out for comments from Fed officials this week for more hints on the upcoming rate cuts, along with U.S. retail sales data.Data on Friday showed unchanged U.S. producer prices last month, cementing the case for quarter-point U.S. interest-rate cuts at upcoming Fed policy meetings. Traders see a roughly 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, and 10% chance of it leaving rates unchanged.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.49(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.61(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets rose on Monday as investors assessed China's underwhelming stimulus steps, while focus was on monetary policy decisions by central banks in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines later this week..
Nikkei 225 was up by 0.55%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 1.02%, while Hang Seng was down by 0.75%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Monday as investors assessed China's weekend stimulus announcement, while also focussing on U.S. Federal Reserve officials' comments for further rate cut cues.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,660.64 per ounce by 0800 GMT. Bullion rose nearly 1% in the previous session.U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,677.90.
Oil prices on Monday wiped out nearly all gains made last weekafter data showed China's inflation rate declined and a lack of clarity on the country's economicstimulus plans stoked fears about fuel demand in the world's biggest crude importer.
Brent crude futures fell $1 to $78.04 per barrel by 0649 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell $1, or 1.3%, to $74.56 per barrel.
