Market Roundup
•Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%forecast,0.4% previous
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Oct) -2.2%,-3.5%previous
•Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Sep) 12.40%,-0.70% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep) 12.0%, 5.1% forecast,-3.6% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (Sep) 4.0%,-1.0%previous
•China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Oct) 50.6, 50.7 forecast, 51.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:30 Swiss CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.3% forecast ,0.2% previous
•07:30 Swiss CPI (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% forecast ,-0.2% previous
•07:45 French Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.7% previous
•08:15 HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 51.8 forecast, 51.5 previous
•08:45 HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.3 forecast, 49.0 previous
•08:50 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.3 forecast, 48.3 previous
•08:55 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.6 forecast, 49.6 previous
•09:00 EU S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.0 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.0 forecast, 50.0 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.6 forecast,49.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors looked ahead to a series of key U.S. data releases this week to assess the strength of the economy and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. With the ongoing U.S. government shutdown likely to delay the release of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, attention has shifted to other indicators such as the ADP employment data and ISM PMIs for clues on labor market and business activity trends.Last week, the Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, but Chair Jerome Powell suggested it could be the final reduction of the year, emphasizing the need for clearer evidence of economic softness before making additional moves. Several Fed officials also voiced unease with the decision, underscoring divisions within the central bank over the timing and extent of policy easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1551(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as investors awaited a slew of key U.S. economic data releases this week to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy and assess how the results might influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.A clutch of Federal Reserve bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the U.S. central bank's decision to cut interest rates, even as influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market.Following the October monetary policy meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut at the next meeting in December was "not a foregone conclusion." Investors had expected that move to be almost a done deal. Traders have since pared back expectations for a cut in December and are now pricing in a roughly 68% chance of a move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3288(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3119(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3054(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as investors positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming monetary policy decision. The central bank meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, following a stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation that has tempered prospects of near-term easing.Australia’s September building approvals jumped 12.0% month-on-month more than double the consensus forecast of a 5.0% rise signaling resilience in the construction sector despite elevated borrowing costs. The AUD/USD pair continues to trade within its post-October 17 uptrend, though it may need a fresh catalyst, such as a hawkish tone from the RBA, to extend its recent gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded near multi-month highs on Monday as yen remained defensive at the start of the week as investors grappled with mixed signals from the Bank of Japan. Market participants remain uncertain about the timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike, with political and fiscal factors adding to the policy ambiguity. Speculation is mounting that newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will prioritize aggressive fiscal stimulus to bolster growth and shield households from rising living costs, potentially limiting the scope for monetary tightening.Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered the strongest indication yet that a rate hike could come as early as December. However, investors were largely unmoved by the central bank’s cautious approach, particularly in contrast to the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish tone.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Monday, buoyed by optimism over the U.S.-China trade truce and a surge in spending on artificial intelligence that continued to lift technology shares.
Hang Seng was up 0.99% ,China’sA50 traded up 0.31% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.12 %
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Monday, capped by a firm U.S. dollar as investors scaled back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, while easing U.S.–China trade tensions further weighed on safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was flat at $4,000.65 per ounce, as of 0504 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $4,010 per ounce.
Oil prices climbed on Monday after OPEC+ decided to delay planned production increases in the first quarter of next year, easing concerns about a potential supply glut that had weighed on the market in recent weeks.
Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.37%, to $65.01 a barrel by 0424 GMT after closing 7 cents higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.19 a barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.34%, after settling up 41 cents in the previous session.
