Asian Stocks Steady, Oil Recovers Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire and Market Optimism

Asian stock markets held firm on Wednesday as investor sentiment improved, supported by a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a rebound in oil prices. The truce helped offset fears of broader regional conflict, although Israel warned of a strong response to recent Iranian missile strikes. A preliminary U.S. intelligence report contradicted President Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were "obliterated," suggesting the damage was temporary.

Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s benchmark were flat, while Taiwan's market rose 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.6%, but China’s blue chips dipped 0.1%. U.S. stock futures remained steady, and the MSCI global equity index held its record high from the previous session.

Brent crude oil edged up 81 cents to $67.95 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 70 cents to $65.07, rebounding slightly after steep drops earlier in the week. Market analysts remain focused on the broader risk of escalation, particularly concerns over U.S. involvement or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. dollar weakened, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 97.854. The euro rose to $1.1625, nearing its highest level since October 2021. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 144.70 yen. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to a 1.5-month low of 3.787% amid reduced inflation fears due to lower energy costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that rising tariffs could push inflation higher in the summer, potentially impacting interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, June data showed a surprise decline in U.S. consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut rates, with markets pricing in an 18% chance of a July rate cut.