Market Roundup
- Chicago Fed: Don't blame economic doldrums just on weather.
- Crude oil prices soar asSaudi Arabia allies launch air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen, US supports action, provides logistical support.
- China SAFE Wang Yungui: Talk of capital outflows false, will work to curb risks as CNY becomes more convertible.
- Japan MoF flow data week-ended March 21 - Japanese buy net Y221.3 bln foreign stocks, Y765.5 bln bonds, Y57.2 bln bills; foreign investors sell net Y352.8 bln Japanese stocks, Y953.5 bln bonds, buy Y170.6 bln bills.
- New Zealand PM Key sees TPP deal closing in.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0300 EDT/0700GMT) Germany Apr GfK consumer sentiment index, 9.8 consensus; previous 9.7.
- (0345 EDT/0745 GMT) France Q4 GDP - detailed, +0.1% q/q consensus; prelim +0.1%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) Sweden Feb trade balance, SEK4 bln surplus consensus; previous SEK3.5 bln surplus.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) Sweden Feb household lending, +6.2% y/y consensus; previous +6.1%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) Sweden Feb PPI; previous +0.2% m/m, +0.2% y/y.
- (0500 EDT/0900GMT) Eurozone Feb money supply M3, +4.3% y/y consensus; previous +4.1%, 3-mo MA +3.6%.
- (0500 EDT/0900GMT) Eurozone Feb private loans, +0.1% consensus; previous -0.1%.
- (0530 EDT/0930GMT) UK Feb retail sales, +0.4% m/m, +4.7% y/y consensus; previous -0.3%, +5.4%.
- (0530 EDT/0930GMT) UK Feb - ex-fuel,+0.4% m/m, +4.2% y/y consensus; previous -0.7%, +4.8%.
- (0700 EDT/1100 GMT) UK Mar CBI distributive trade sales index, 15.0 consensus; previous 1.0.
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 290k consensus; previous 291k.
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US Mar Markit servicesPMI - flash; previous 57.1.
- (0945 EDT/1345 GMT) US Mar Markit composite PMI - flash, 57.0 consensus; previous 57.2.
- (1100 EDT/1500GMT) US Mar KC Fed manufacturing, composite indices; previous 5, 1.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Boao Asia Forum in Hainan, China, various speakers.
- N/A London City Week IFSF conference, various speakers (final day).
- (0435 EDT/0835 GMT) St Louis Fed Bullard speech in Frankfurt.
- (0600 EDT/1000 GMT) Italy E1.5-2 bln 2017 CTZ, E1-1.5 bln 2.35/3.1% 2024/26 BTPei auctions.
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT) ECB Pres Draghi addresses Italy parliamentary committee.
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT) BoC Gov Poloz speech in London./(1045 EDT/1445 GMT) press conference.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) Atlanta Fed Lockhart in Detroit symposium panel discussion.
- (1300 EDT/1700 GMT) SNB Zurbruegg speech in Zurich.
- (1330 EDT/1730 GMT) BoE Gov Carney FSB press conference.
FX Recap
USD/JPY continues its downside correction in mid-Asia, having posted monthly lows at 118.99 levels. It remains under pressure as Chicago Fed President Evans' dovish comments continue to weigh on the market. Moreover, the pair is also underpinned by disappointing durable goods orders data released in the US last session. Immediate resistance is seen at 119.52 levels, and then at 119.85 levels. On the downside, support is located at 118.80 levels, and a break below could drag the pair to 118.50 levels.
AUD/USD continued trading in the red and remained the weakest in Asia, as AUD is weighed by concerns over country's economic outlook after Citi group revised its growth forecasts for Australia downwards. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7841 levels, above which it could extend gains to 0.7889 levels. On the downside, support is located at 0.7761 levels and then at 0.7702 levels.
NZD/USD extended its downward move in the third consecutive session, mainly on the news that Fonterra would likely raise offer volumes at GDT auctions. It currently trades at 0.7582 levels. The downside moved was somewhat stalled on recovery seen in oil, gold and copper prices. Pair's immediate resistance is seen at 0.7600 levels, and further at 0.7693 levels. On the flipside, pair is likely to find support at 0.7550 levels and then at 0.7521 levels.
EUR/USD continued its upward move as dollar weakened due to disappointing U.S. durable goods orders report. It currently trades at 1.0987 levels, and is likely to again test 1.10 levels. On the upside, key resistance is located at 1.1029 levels, a break above could extend its gains to 1.1062 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 1.0891 levels and then at 1.0768 levels.
USD/CAD trades lower by 0.23% and CAD should consolidate on the crosses as crude prices soar. Pair is likely to find support at NY 1.2437 low then this week's 1.2428 low.
