Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Jun): 0.8%, 0.5% forecast, -1.4% previous.
• German Imports (MoM) (Jun): 4.2%, 1.0% forecast, -3.9% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): -1.9%, -0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• German Trade Balance (Jun): 14.9B, 17.8B forecast, 18.6B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): -3.53%, -0.60% forecast, 0.00% previous
• French Current Account (Jun): -3.40B, no forecast, -2.60B previous
• French Exports (Jun): 50.6B, 49.0B previous
• French Imports (Jun): 58.3B, 56.6B previous
• French Reserve Assets Total (Jul): 303,040.0M, 294,723.0M previous
• French Trade Balance (Jun): -7.6B, -7.5B forecast, -7.6B previous
• Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Jul): 716.4B, 713.1B previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jul): 2.7%, 2.9% forecast, 2.7% previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jul): 2.9%, 2.9% previous
• BoE MPC Vote Cut (Aug): 5, 8 forecast, 3 previous
• BoE MPC Vote Hike (Aug): 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous
• BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Aug): 4, 1 forecast, 6 previous
• BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug): 4.00%, 4.00% forecast, 4.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,950K forecast, 1,946K previous.
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 221K forecast, 218K previous.
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 221.00K previous.
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2): 1.9% forecast, -1.5% previous.
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2): 1.6% forecast, 6.6% previous.
•14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun): 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
•14:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jun): -0.3% previous.
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jul): 54.6 previous.
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Jul): 55.2, 53.3 previous.
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jul): 3.0% previous.
•15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.290% previous.
•15:00 USD 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.290% previous.
•17:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.889% previous.
•17:00USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): 2.5%forecast, 2.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•20:00 U.S. President Trump Speaks
•14:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff volleys. U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs kicked in on Thursday, including a 39% rate on Switzerland. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter left Washington on Wednesday after failing to meet with Trump or any top trade officials. Trump also said the United States will impose a tariff of about 100% on imports of semiconductors but offered up a big exemption - it will not apply to companies that are manufacturing in the U.S. or have committed to do so. On the data front,German industrial output fell in June to its lowest level since the pandemic, with exports rising more than expected amid weak foreign demand and increased competition from China.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1784(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1874(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1638 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1549(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Thursday after the Bank of England delivered a widely expected rate cut, but deep divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) over inflation raised investor eyebrows. In a historic first, the MPC held two separate votes highlighting a sharp split, with four of nine members preferring to leave rates unchanged. The BoE now faces a policy dilemma, balancing a softening labour market against persistent inflation pressures. The unexpected hawkish dissent led markets to reconsider the likelihood of further rate cuts. The pound briefly jumped 0.6% to a session high of $1.3430 before easing to $1.3407, still 0.4% higher on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3486(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3589(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3575(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3319(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday, lifted struggle greenback and stronger-than-expected Australian trade data. Australia's June trade surplus jumped to A$5.4 billion, up from a revised A$1.6 billion in May and well above the A$3.4 billion forecast. Exports rose 6%, fueled by a 37% spike in non-monetary gold, while imports fell 3.1% on weaker demand for machinery and vehicles. Markets largely ignored Trump's new tariff threats on India and semiconductor imports. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. jobless claims, with expectations of a slight rise to 221,000. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6531(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6600(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6447(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6410(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped slightly on Thursday, remaining under pressure amid persistent economic concerns and uncertainty surrounding upcoming Fed appointments. July’s jobs report missed expectations, with prior payrolls revised down sharply, pointing to a weakening labor market. Attention has now shifted to jobless claims data, with initial claims expected to rise by 3,000 to 221,000 for the week ending August 2, and continued claims for the week ending July 26 also seen ticking higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.04(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.31(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.40 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Thursday as investors digested mixed earnings and assessed the potential fallout from new U.S. tariffs on key trading partners, which could dampen global growth and reignite inflation fears.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.80 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.62 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold inched up on Thursday as renewed trade tensions from sharp U.S. tariffs lifted safe-haven demand, while rising expectations of rate cuts further supported bullion.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,375.99 per ounce as of 1028 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $3,448.90.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday, trimming earlier gains after the Kremlin confirmed an upcoming meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump, fueling hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict.
Brent crude futures were up 30 cents, or 0.5%, at $67.19 a barrel by 1201 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.62.
