Market Roundup
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Sep) -4.3%, -0.6% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Sep) -3.1%, -0.2% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals 2.2%, 2.3% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) 4.4%, 4.4% forecast, -3.9% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Sep) 4.609B, 5.240B forecast, 5.284B previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Oct) 12.7%, 5.0% forecast, 2.4% previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Oct) -2.3%, -1.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) 95.72B, 73.50B forecast, 81.71B previous
•China Exports (Oct) 11.20M, 1.60M previous
•China Imports (Oct) -3.70M, -0.50M previous
•China Trade Balance (Oct) 679.10B, 560.00B forecast, 582.62B previous
•German Exports (MoM) (Sep) -1.7%, -1.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
•German Imports (MoM) (Sep) 2.1%, 0.5% forecast, -3.4% previous
•German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -2.5%, -1.1% forecast, 2.6% previous
•German Trade Balance (Sep) 17.0B, 20.8B forecast, 22.5B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:45 French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0%, 0.0% previous
• 07:45 French Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 260,783.0M previous
•08:05 Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Oct) 715.6B previous
•08:05 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 0.2%, -0.1% previous
•08:05 China FX Reserves (USD) (Oct) 3.290T forecast, 3.316T previous
•08:30 Swedish Interest Rate Decision 2.75% forecast, 3.25% previous
•08:30 Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) 47.8 previous
•08:30 German IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 41.7 previous
•10:00 French 30-Year OAT Auction 3.55% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 1.3% forecast, 0.8% for previous
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Cut (Nov) 8, 1 previous
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Hike (Nov) 0, 0 previous
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Nov) 1, 8 previous
•12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 4.75% forecast, 5.00% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday as dollar eased as traders digested Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. The Fed announces its policy decision later on Thursday and a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in, though traders have since pared back bets on the scale of future monetary easing by the U.S. central bank.Money markets now see the Fed cutting its policy rate only twice in 2025, lowering it to the 3.75%-4% range and likely taking until July to do so.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, edged down 0.05% to 105.06 after surging to its highest since July 3 at 105.44 in the previous session. The euro was up 0.06% at $1.0736, having tumbled as low as $1.0682 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0779(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.08(6.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0747(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(23.6%fib
GBP/USD: Sterling rebounded on Thursday as the U.S. currency gains cooled as the market digested Republican Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, while investors eyed several central bank decisions that will be topped off by the Federal Reserve.The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day, and the market focus will be on any clues suggesting the U.S. central bank could skip a cut in December. Last week's October jobs report came in weaker than expected, raising questions over the degree of softness in the labour market, though this data was clouded by the impact of recent hurricanes and labour strikes. The Fed's decision comes on the back of the U.S. presidential election, with a victory by Trump fuelling questions over whether the bank may proceed to reduce rates at a slower and shallower pace. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2983(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3062 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2878 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2850 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded on Thursday after a sharp sell-off as investors awaited stimulus news from China following Republican Donald Trump's U.S. election victory. The Federal Reserve is set to announce the outcome of its latest policy review later in the day. With a quarter-point rate cut almost fully priced into markets, the focus will be on the central bank's assessment of Trump policies, which are seen pointing to a shallower trajectory of rate cuts and stalling, or reversing, the slowdown in inflation. The Aussie bounced 0.7%to $0.6617, having plunged 1% overnight to as low as $0.6513. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6682(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6624 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6598(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen Thursday as dollar gains cooled off ahead of monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day, and the market focus will be on any clues suggesting the U.S. central bank could skip a cut in December.The Fed's decision comes on the back of the U.S. presidential election, with a victory by Trump fuelling questions over whether the bank may proceed to reduce rates at a slower.At GMT 06:38, the pair was trading down 0.41% at 153.99, after hitting daily high at 154.72 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.86(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.70(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.82(38.2%fib a break below could take the pair towards 151.47(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks traded higher on Thursday, buoyed by a record rise for U.S. shares overnight, as investors mulled the implications of a Donald Trump presidency, while also eyeing policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks later in the day.
China A50 was up by 3.43%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 0.05%, while Hang Seng was up by 2.05%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices ticked up on Thursday following a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as risks to oil supply from a Trump presidency and a hurricane building in the Gulf Coast outweighed a stronger dollar and lower crude imports in top importer China.
Brent crude oil futures were up 29 cents, or 0.39%, at $75.21 per barrel by 0700 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 18 cents or 0.25% to $71.87.
Gold prices touched their lowest levels in more than three weeks on Thursday, as the dollar strengthened after Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve for its decision on interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,657.65 per ounce, as of 0538 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Oct. 15 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures shed 0.4% to $2,665.20.
