Market Roundup
• Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 50.0,49.7 forecast,48.7previous
•China Caixin Services PMI (Dec) 52.0, 52.0 forecast, 52.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.3% previous
•09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan) -6.2 previous
•09:30 UK Mortgage Lending (Nov) 4.80B forecast, 4.27B previous
•09:30 UK M3 Money Supply (Nov) 3,174.2B previous
•09:30 UK Net Lending to Individuals (Nov) 5.200B forecast, 5.400B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as currency traders largely looked past the United States' weekend raid in Venezuela , focusing instead on a slate of U.S. macroeconomic indicators due this week that could be crucial in steering Federal Reserve policy. The data rollout this week begins with ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and culminates with the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday.Traders currently expect two U.S. rate cuts this year, according to LSEG calculations based on futures.Investors are also awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump's choice for the next Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May. Trump has said he will announce his pick this month, and has said Powell's successor will be "someone who believes in lower interest rates, by a lot.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower as dollar firmed on Monday as investors assessed the implications of U.S. military action in Venezuela to prepare for a packed week of economic data releases in the first full trading week of the year. Investors are assessing the repercussions of a dramatic weekend of events, which saw the U.S. capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.1% at 98.55, extending recent gains into a fifth consecutive day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Monday as renewed geopolitical tensions triggered a knee-jerk pullback in the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.The commodity-heavy currency is widely viewed as a liquid proxy for global risk appetite, as its movements tend to mirror shifts in investor sentiment.Investors see a roughly 39% chance that the RBA could raise rates as soon as February, with focus on Wednesday’s inflation data.The monthly consumer price data for November are out on Wednesday and forecasts favour a slight slowdown to 3.7%, from 3.8% the month before.The trimmed mean measure of core inflation could dip to 3.2%, after an alarmingly high reading of 3.3% in October, and would still be above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Monday after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, escalating geopolitical tensions. On Saturday, theU.S. captured Maduro in an attack that was Washington's most controversial intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 37 years ago.Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has taken over as interim leader and said that Maduro remains president.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will continue to raise rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. It is a view he has reiterated several times in recent months, including after December's as-expected decision to raise rates to a three-decade high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Monday as investors shrugged off U.S. military action in Venezuela, focusing on a busy week of economic data.
China’s A50 up 1.57%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 3.03% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 3.43%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday, with other precious metals also surging, as the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s President Maduro heightened geopolitical tensions and boosted safe-haven demand.
As of 0508 GMT, spot gold rose 1.8% to $4,406.77 per ounce, a one-week high. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 1.9% to $4,413.40.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors assessed whether turmoil in OPEC member Venezuela would disrupt supply after U.S. President Donald Trump seized President Nicolas Maduro.
Brent crude futures rose 17 cents to $60.92 a barrel by 0024 GMT, paring earlier losses, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.43 a barrel, up 11 cents.
