Market Roundup
•Australia Home Loans (MoM) (Aug) 0.7%,2.5% previous
•Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) (Aug) 1.4%,5.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:30 German Car Registration (YoY) -27.8% previous
•10:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 1.0% previous
•10:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Friday as focus shifted towards U.S. payrolls report to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The U.S. nonfarm payroll data is due at 1230 GMT. Expectations are for the world's largest economy to have added 140,000 jobs last month, slightly down from August's 142,000 increase. New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan are also scheduled to speak later in the day. A slew of data releases this week have pointed to a U.S. economy still in solid shape, after the country's services sector activity jumped to a 1-1/2-year high in September amid strong growth in new orders, while a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed the labour market gliding at the end of the third quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1064(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1110(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1019(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0989 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling recovered slightly on Friday from overnight sharp losses after remarks by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey dovish comments. Andrew Bailey hinted at faster policy easing. Bailey told the Guardian newspaper the BoE could become a bit more activist and "a bit more aggressive" in its approach to lowering rates, if there was further welcome news on inflation for the central bank.Sterling which has strengthened recently as investors saw fewer interest rates cuts in Britain than in other countries was down by more than a cent against the U.S. dollar, on track for its biggest daily fall in almost six months. Sterling edged 0.02% higher to $1.3129, nursing its losses after sliding more than 1% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3170(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3257(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3075(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3004(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed against dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls figures due later in the day. The U.S. jobs report is released comes in the backdrop of a strengthening US economic outlook and a more assertive tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Top of FormBottom of FormThe Australian dollar gained 0.04% to $0.6842, however, it is down 0.8% for the week, marking its first weekly decline in four weeks. Markets are pricing in a 33% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in November by 50 basis points (bps), down from 49% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The Fed cut interest rates last month by 50 bps. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6888(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6909(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6859(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6857(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Friday as safe heaven yen strengthens amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the U.S. is discussing strikes on Iran's oil facilities as retaliation for Tehran's missile attack on Israel, while Israel's military hit Beirut with new air strikes in its battle against Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.His comments sparked a surge in oil prices, which had already been on the rise this week following the widening conflict in the Middle East. Focus also turned to the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, which would provide further clues on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.93 (Oct 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.26 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.20(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Friday as Investor focus was also on the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day, which would provide further clues on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.
Nikkei 225 was up +0.16%,Hang Sengas up +2.77%, South Korean KOSPI was up +0.31%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Friday, supported by safe-haven demand arising from the Middle East conflict, while spotlight shifted towards U.S. payrolls report to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,662.72 per ounce, as of 0649 GMT, after climbing to an all-time high of $2,685.42 on Sept. 26. Bullion has gained 0.2 for the week.U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $2,682.90.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday, but remained on track for strong weekly gains, as investors weighed the prospect of a wider Middle East conflict disrupting crude flows against an amply supplied global market.
Brent crude futures ticked down 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.54 a barrel as of 0415 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $73.65 a barrel.
