Market Roundup
- Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem says "received Greek request for six months extension" of credit.
- ECB says no discussion on capital controls in Greece in Governing Council.
- Greece aiming to conclude an agreement with euro zone partners soon, seeking common ground - Govt Spokesman.
- Greek Govt spokesman: Speculation of capital controls has no bearing on reality.
- UK Financial Conduct Authority says will apply European Union rules on handling dealing commissions without changes.
- Japan Econmin Amari says finally seeing signs of weak yen's benefit for exports via the 'J-curve'.
- French annual inflation turns negative for the first time since Oct 2009.
- United Kingdom Feb CBI Trends - Orders increases to +10 (consensus 6) vs previous 4.
- European Union Dec Current Account SA, decreases to 17.8 bln eur vs previous 18.1 bln eur.
- European Union Dec Current Account NSA, increases to 29.2 bln eur vs previous 24.6 bln eur.
- European Union Dec Net Investment Flow, increases to 67.2 bln eur vs previous 40.3 bln eur.
- France Jan CPI (EU Norm) Final YY decreases to -0.4% (consensus -0.3 %) vs previous 0.1%.
- France Jan CPI (EU Norm) Final MM decreases to -1.1% (consensus -1.0 %) vs previous 0.1%.
- Switzerland Trade Balance 3433 mln SFR in Jan vs revised 1514 mln SFR in previous month.
- EUR/USD rises to 1.1450, quick retrace to 1.13855
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Jobless Claims (Feb 14 week) consensus 293k, previous 304k
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Continued Claims (Feb 7 week) consensus 2.374 mln, previous 2.359 mln
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) USLeading Indicators (Jan) consensus +0.3% m/m, previous +0.5% m/m
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (Feb) consensus 9.3, previous 6.3
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) US EIA Weekly Petroleum Statistics
Key Events Ahead
- (0730 ET/1230 GMT) ECB inaugural minutes from Feb policy meeting
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) NAR Commercial Real Estate Report/Forecast
- (1430 ET/1930 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $975 mln)
FX Recap
EUR/USD hit a high of 1.1450, as Greece aims to reach an agreement with its Eurozone counterparts, while the US dollar was still seen under pressure due to the disappointing Fed minutes released in the previous session. Pair's gains are being limited by the technical resistance around 1.1440-1.1447 levels. It trades at 1.1397 at present, with next resistance located at 1.1448, above which gains could be extended to 1.15 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.1430 and further below at 1.14 levels. Option expiries at 1.1250-60 (950m), 1.1350 (785m), 1.1400 (2.1bln).
USD/JPY fell in the previous session on dovish Fed minutes, but the losses were limited at the 118.42. Moreover, a string of weak economic data in the US could further delay rate hike until Q4 2015. Therefore, the possibility of the pair falling is high. A break below 118.42, could extend the losses to 117.94 (76.4% retracement) and further to 117.57 levels. On the flipside, a rise above 118.81 levels could push the pair further to 119.20 levels. Option expiries at 118.50 (795m), 119.00 (2.5bln), 119.40 (800m), 120.00 (1.2bln).
AUD/USD was off from 0.7843 in Asia on S&P budget concerns. AUD has been boosted by the AAA rating. Pair saw an initial fall to 0.7786 in Asia, and further fall to 0.7757 early London, with weaker oil keeping it under pressure. Option expiries at 0.7750 (534m), 0.7775 (542m).
GBP/USD edged higher to fresh session high at 1.5459 levels, during the European trading, nearing the seven week high of 1.5483 posted in the previous session. It stays boosted mainly on the back of a weaker US dollar. Moreover, the pound was supported by positive employment figures from the UK released on Wednesday. On the upside, next resistance at 1.5483, a break above could push the pair to 1.5500 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.5430 and further at 1.5400 levels. Option expiries at 1.5385-1.5400 (450m).
USD/CHF moved higher in Europe session and now trades at 0.9474 levels. Pair is likely to test 76.4% fibo at 0.9545 of Jan 15 decline session, close by to monthly low from Dec at 0.9554. To the downside, next support is seen at 0.9400 levels and below which losses could be extended to 0.9313 levels.
