China’s economy is slowing, but also changing shape

Sep 21, 2015 20:39 pm UTC| Commentary

Chinas current round of stimulus measures has less to do with external factors and more to do with internal imbalances, created in part by previous stimulus programs. Whether one believes the official statistics of 7%...

Banxico decided to keep the reference rate unchanged at 3.00%

Sep 21, 2015 20:25 pm UTC| Commentary

Banxico decided to keep the reference rate unchanged at 3.00%. This was broadly expected by the markets, as the US Federal Reserve also kept its policy rate unchanged. On the other hand, the press release is rather...

US Government shutdown - another Fed deterrent?

Sep 21, 2015 16:17 pm UTC| Commentary

With the beginning of a new fiscal year less than two weeks away and no funding authorization in place, there is a growing chance of a Federal government shutdown. Congress will also have to increase or suspend the debt...

U.S. quarterly economic outlook

Sep 21, 2015 16:01 pm UTC| Commentary

Global headwinds have increased speed since last Quarterly Economic Forecast in June. Slowing growth in China and concern over policymakers management of its economy have led to tighter financial conditions and weaker...

Existing home sales pullback in August, but remain at healthy levels

Sep 21, 2015 15:45 pm UTC| Commentary

Existing home sales declined by 4.8% m/m in August, falling to 5.31 million units (annualized). The reading came in well below the consensus forecast, which called for a more modest pullback to 5.50 million. Revisions to...

Norges Bank 25bp rate cut and an easing bias could move EUR/NOK higher

Sep 21, 2015 15:08 pm UTC| Commentary

The current rate path from Norges Bank has a 68% implied probability of another 25bp rate cut and a 61% probability of a 25bp rate cut already at the 24 September meeting. We expect a 25bp rate cut at the 24 September...

Spain's catalan elections likely to prompt greater uncertainty but not independence

Sep 21, 2015 14:40 pm UTC| Commentary

The regional election in Catalonia on Sunday 27 September is considered by the pro-independence parties as the first step towards a gradual process that will ultimately lead to independence within 18 months. Most recent...