Market Roundup
•Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Sep) 1.8%, 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Sep) -0.7%, 0.6% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -354.4B, -354.6B previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 690.1B, 1,345.3B previous
•China Exports (Oct) -0.80M, 8.40M previous
•China Imports (Oct) 1.40M, 7.50M previous
•China Trade Balance (Oct) 640.49B, 705.00B forecast, 645.47B previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Oct) -1.1%, 3.0% forecast, 8.3% previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Oct) 1.0%, 3.2% forecast, 7.4% previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) 90.07B, 96.90B forecast, 90.45B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
• 07:00 UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
• 07:00 German Exports (MoM) (Sep) 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
• 07:00 German Imports (MoM) (Sep) 0.5% forecast, -1.3% previous
• 07:00 German Trade Balance (Sep) 16.7B forecast, 17.2B previous
• 07:45 French Current Account (Sep) 1.50B previous
• 07:45 French Exports (Sep) 51.8B previous
• 07:45 French Imports (Sep) 57.3B previous
• 07:45 French Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 330 forecast,268.0M previous
• 07:45 French Trade Balance (Sep) -5.9B forecast, -5.5B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 08:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped slightly against the dollar as the greenback regained some strength from overnight fall.With the U.S. government shutdown postponing the release of the monthly non-farm payrolls report, traders have turned to private sector data showing the economy shed jobs in October in the government and retail sectors. Market participants now see a 69% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, up from close to 60% in the previous session. The Fed cut interest rates last week and Chair Jerome Powell suggested it might be the last reduction in borrowing costs for the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar the day after the Bank of England held interest rates steady . The Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday, but a close vote and indications that Governor Andrew Bailey may soon support a rate cut increased expectations for a potential December move, once the government’s budget is announced. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) highlighted a rising risk of weaker economic demand, while the threat of persistently high inflation had eased. Bailey, who voted to maintain rates, was the only member among the five who believed overall inflation risks had declined.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar as renewed risk-off sentiment swept across global markets.Global equity markets saw another round of tech-led declines on valuation worries and rising U.S.–China strains in AI trade, dampening sentiment toward risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.AUD is poised for a 1% weekly decline, the first in four weeks, reflecting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s firm stance at its November meeting.Markets still expect one more rate cut from Reserve Bank of Australia, most likely in May next year, though there remains a small risk that the current easing cycle has already ended with the cash rate at 3.6%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as fresh demand for the greenback outweighed concerns over a looming U.S. government shutdown. The dollar index which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.5% to 99.790, reversing overnight losses.The U.S. government shutdown has pushed back the release of the non-farm payrolls report, prompting traders to look to private sources for labor market indicators. On the data front, Japanese household spending rose 1.8% in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, falling short of market expectations for a 2.5% increase.On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, household spending fell 0.7%, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decline, according to data from the Internal Affairs Ministry.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities fell on Friday, weighed down by concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations and signs of a cooling labor market.
Hang Seng was down 1.06% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded down 1.81% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.21%
Commodities Recap
Oil edged up on Friday following three days of declines on worries about excess supply and slowing demand in the U.S., though prices are set fora second weekly loss.
Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.66 a barrel at 0421 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.72 a barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.49%.
Gold climbed on Friday as the dollar weakened, following U.S. private-sector job data that pointed to softness in the labor market and fueled expectations of another interest rate cut. Ongoing concerns over a prolonged government shutdown further supported demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,996.67 per ounce, as of 0537 GMT, but set for a weekly loss of 0.2%. Bullion has fallen 9% since hitting a record high of $4,381.21 on October 20.
