Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Oct): 53.1, 51.7 previous
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Oct): 54.0, 53.0 forecast, 52.5 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Oct): 47.7, 46.8 forecast, 48.1 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Oct): 48.0, 47.1 forecast, 48.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Oct): 53.9, 53.8 forecast, 52.0 previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Oct): 54.6, 54.5 forecast, 51.5 previous
• Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): -0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 0.5%, 0.6% previous
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct): 52.5, 52.2 forecast, 51.2 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct): 53.0, 52.6 forecast, 51.3 previous
• S&P Global UK Composite PMI (Oct): 52.2, 51.1 forecast, 50.1 previous
• S&P Global UK Services PMI (Oct): 52.3, 51.1 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Reserve Assets Total (Oct): 126.6B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Sep): 60.58B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Sep): 66.91B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Sep): -6.32B previous
•14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Nov): -14.2 previous
•14:00 Canada Services PMI (Oct): 46.30 previous
•14:45 S&P Global US Composite PMI (Oct): 54.8 forecast, 53.9 previous
•14:45 S&P Global US Services PMI (Oct): 55.2 forecast, 54.2 previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep): 1.4% forecast, -1.3% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Aug): 0.6% previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Oct): 49.9 previous
•15:00 US SM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct): 47.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Oct): 50.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 50.7, 50.0 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct): 69.4 previous
•15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep): 7.227M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.500M forecast, -6.858M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.500Mforecast ,-5.941M previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded flat against the dollar on Wednesday as mixed Eurozone data has failed to improve investors' mood.The euro zone economy expanded at its fastest rate since May 2023 in October, breaking out of the subdued growth pattern seen earlier this year as service sector activity accelerated and demand conditions improved, a survey showed.The HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.5 in October from 51.2 in September, marking the 10th consecutive month of growth and reaching its highest level in 29 months. Italy and Ireland also recorded solid expansions at 53.1 and 53.7 respectively. France remained the only major euro zone economy in contraction territory, with its index falling to an eight-month low of 47.7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against dollar as investors positioning ahead of Thursday's important Bank of England meeting, A day ahead of the BoE meeting, markets are still pricing around a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, leaving scope for a knee-jerk reaction in the pound in either direction depending on the outcome.A raft of data released last month, most notably cooler-than-expected inflation figure, caused markets to raise bets on BoE easing, and weighed on the pound.Also in the mix for sterling investors is Britain's budget, due later this month. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, in a speech on Tuesday, paved the way for broad tax rises. Sterling was last up 0.2% on the dollar at $1.3049. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s sharp decline, as it consolidated within a narrow range. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.6% during its November meeting, in line with market expectations.The central bank cited ongoing inflationary pressures as a key reason for maintaining its current policy stance. After a hotter-than-expected third-quarter inflation print, markets had largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut this week.Investor expectations now point to a very limited chance of monetary easing before May next year, as central banks continue to take a cautious approach amid persistent inflation pressures.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially fell but regained some ground on Wednesday as investors digested the Bank of Japan’s September meeting minutes. The release revealed increasing support among policymakers for a potential rate hike, with two members advocating for an immediate increase.At the two-day policy meeting that ended on September 19, the BOJ’s nine-member board decided to keep rates at 0.5%, rejecting calls from the two hawkish members to raise them to 0.75%. The minutes highlighted discussions on the timing of any hike, weighing downside risks to growth against persistent inflation pressures, particularly from elevated food prices.Market participants are now turning their attention to this week’s key economic data, including wage and household spending figures, for further clues on the BOJ’s policy trajectory.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to a two-week low on Wednesday, dragged down by a tech sector selloff amid growing concerns over global equity overvaluation.
At (GMT 13:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down 0.29%, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as investors weighed weaker economic data from major oil importers, with U.S. inventory figures offering some support.
Brent crude futures were down 22 cents, or 0.34%, at $64.22 a barrel by 1218 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was 28 cents, or 0.46%, lower at $60.28.
Gold prices gained more than 1% on Wednesday, with a slight U.S. dollar pullback and wider risk-off sentiment driving demand.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,963.03 per ounce at 1203 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.3% to $3,971.90 per ounce. Gold prices have gained about 52% this year, reaching an all-time peak of $4,381.21 on October 20.
