FxWirePro: Bullish/bearish scenarios and risk events that linger around dollar – EM gamma to spike off on USD puts offloading

Oct 09, 2017 13:26 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The US dollar has been crawling ahead in recent days, with the market-implied probability of a December Fed hike inching to around 80%. The FOMC minutes and US CPI data this week will be in focus. Fed Chair Yellen is also...

FxWirePro: Fair interpretation and forecasting of Mexican peso in contemplation of underlying geopolitical and NAFTA concerns – Hedging Perspectives

Oct 09, 2017 13:19 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Bullish USDMXN scenario: We could foresee the pair at 19.30 on a disordered NAFTA negotiation, political noise regarding elections and escalation of bilateral relations between Mexico and US. Bearish USDMXN scenario: We...

FxWirePro: Constructive Polish zloty now seems little edgy as EU likely to impost political stress – Stat short in EUR/PLN with astute risk profiling

Oct 09, 2017 12:53 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We have now turned modestly constructive on the Zloty, given strong data momentum.The central banks dovish stance is unhelpful, but data may challenge it over coming months. Short-term valuations look cheap, demand for...

FxWirePro: BRL, MXN and ZAR option markets priced in relatively amid lingering political turmoil

Oct 09, 2017 11:31 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We expect price action to remain supportive for BRL with inflation at 20-year lows and positions seeming less heavy, despite a recent move higher in the currency over the past month. As such, we continue to favor...

FxWirePro: Snippets of optimized hedging portfolios among EMEA FX

Oct 09, 2017 11:05 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The speed of the correction in EM FX has surprised us, but we remain cautiously pro-carry in our region, given supportive valuations. Over the past two weeks, EM FX weakened sharply across the board (refer above...

FxWirePro: Spot out asymmetry and own cheap gamma in GBP-bloc

Oct 09, 2017 09:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

With increased focus on repricing and reassessment of DM interest rates and monetary policy, G10 FX forecasts have had more revisions than EM FX forecasts in the past month. The better data has prompted our economists to...

FxWirePro: Cable 1m IV skews still bearish biased amid speech over Brexit transition - Deploy diagonal call ladder structures to optimize hedging

Oct 09, 2017 07:47 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The fifth round of Brexit talks starts this week, with fading hopes that there will be sufficient progress on separation issues in time for the EU leaders meeting later this month. The pound has been under pressure over...