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FxWirePro: Bullish/bearish scenarios and risk events that linger around dollar – EM gamma to spike off on USD puts offloading

Oct 09, 2017 13:26 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The US dollar has been crawling ahead in recent days, with the market-implied probability of a December Fed hike inching to around 80%. The FOMC minutes and US CPI data this week will be in focus. Fed Chair Yellen is also...

FxWirePro: Fair interpretation and forecasting of Mexican peso in contemplation of underlying geopolitical and NAFTA concerns – Hedging Perspectives

Oct 09, 2017 13:19 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Bullish USDMXN scenario: We could foresee the pair at 19.30 on a disordered NAFTA negotiation, political noise regarding elections and escalation of bilateral relations between Mexico and US. Bearish USDMXN scenario: We...

FxWirePro: Constructive Polish zloty now seems little edgy as EU likely to impost political stress – Stat short in EUR/PLN with astute risk profiling

Oct 09, 2017 12:53 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We have now turned modestly constructive on the Zloty, given strong data momentum.The central banks dovish stance is unhelpful, but data may challenge it over coming months. Short-term valuations look cheap, demand for...

FxWirePro: BRL, MXN and ZAR option markets priced in relatively amid lingering political turmoil

Oct 09, 2017 11:31 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We expect price action to remain supportive for BRL with inflation at 20-year lows and positions seeming less heavy, despite a recent move higher in the currency over the past month. As such, we continue to favor...

FxWirePro: Snippets of optimized hedging portfolios among EMEA FX

Oct 09, 2017 11:05 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The speed of the correction in EM FX has surprised us, but we remain cautiously pro-carry in our region, given supportive valuations. Over the past two weeks, EM FX weakened sharply across the board (refer above...

FxWirePro: Spot out asymmetry and own cheap gamma in GBP-bloc

Oct 09, 2017 09:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

With increased focus on repricing and reassessment of DM interest rates and monetary policy, G10 FX forecasts have had more revisions than EM FX forecasts in the past month. The better data has prompted our economists to...

FxWirePro: Cable 1m IV skews still bearish biased amid speech over Brexit transition - Deploy diagonal call ladder structures to optimize hedging

Oct 09, 2017 07:47 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The fifth round of Brexit talks starts this week, with fading hopes that there will be sufficient progress on separation issues in time for the EU leaders meeting later this month. The pound has been under pressure over...

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Economy

U.S. Job Market Braces for Slow Recovery Amid Middle East Tensions and Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. labor market is expected to post modest gains in March, recovering from Februarys sharp drop of 92,000 jobs, but persistent headwinds are keeping economists cautious. A Reuters poll forecasts nonfarm payrolls...

Bank of Japan Eyes Further Rate Hikes Amid Middle East Tensions and Inflation Pressures

A senior Bank of Japan official reaffirmed the central banks commitment to continuing its interest rate hike cycle, while closely monitoring how the ongoing Middle East conflict is shaping Japans economic outlook and...

Japan Signals Readiness to Intervene as Yen Weakens Toward 160 Per Dollar

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a stern warning to currency traders on Friday, signaling that Tokyo is prepared to take decisive action against what officials describe as speculative behavior driving...

China's Services Sector Maintains Growth Streak Despite March Slowdown

Chinas services industry continued to expand in March, though at a notably slower pace, as weakening demand and ongoing workforce reductions tempered activity across the sector. According to the latest RatingDog Services...

U.S. Stock Futures Stabilize Ahead of Good Friday as Investors Eye Jobs Report

U.S. stock index futures held steady Thursday evening as markets entered a cautious holding pattern before the Good Friday holiday closure, with traders weighing Middle East tensions and positioning ahead of a critical...

Politics

Iran-U.S. Military Tensions Escalate as Tehran Fortifies Key Energy Infrastructure

As geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensify, Tehran is ramping up its military readiness in anticipation of a potential ground operation on its soil. According to reports from the Wall Street...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

First Western Ship Transits Strait of Hormuz Since Iran War Began

A container vessel operated by French shipping giant CMA CGM has become the first Western-linked ship to successfully navigate the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, signaling a cautious...

Trump Fires Attorney General Pam Bondi Over Epstein Files and Slow Prosecutions

President Donald Trump removed Attorney General Pam Bondi from her position on Thursday, ending a tenure marked by controversy and growing frustration from the White House. Sources familiar with the matter say Trump had...

Ukraine Frontline Holds Firm as Zelenskyy Claims March Offensive Successfully Repelled

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared this week that the countrys frontline situation is the strongest it has been in ten months, crediting the Ukrainian armed forces with successfully neutralizing a major...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...

Australia's Social Media Ban for Under-16s Sparks Global Movement

Australias landmark social media ban for users under 16, which took effect in December, is reshaping digital policy conversations worldwide. Countries including Spain and Malaysia have signaled interest in adopting similar...

SpaceX Eyes Historic IPO at $1.75 Trillion Valuation

Elon Musks aerospace giant SpaceX has quietly filed a confidential IPO registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to Bloomberg News sources familiar with the matter. The move signals that the...

Annie Altman Amends Sexual Abuse Lawsuit Against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

Annie Altman has filed an amended civil lawsuit against her brother, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, accusing him of sexually abusing her over a span of nearly a decade. The amended complaint was submitted Wednesday in St. Louis...

TSMC Japan's Second Fab to Produce 3nm Chips by 2028

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the worlds leading contract chipmaker, has confirmed plans to begin equipment installation and mass production of 3-nanometre wafers at its second fabrication plant in...