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FxWirePro: “Shifting the sentiments and paving the way for Fed’s March hikes”, OTC hedging factors in dollar bets

Mar 09, 2017 04:57 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase toviewing oneas a sure bet. The central banks top brass engineered the changeby speaking in favor of ahike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellens...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Cable gets stuck in dreadful interest rate and geopolitical regime – Z-spread signals GBP overvaluation

Mar 08, 2017 12:17 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Cable is the most over-valued G10 currency versus the dollar (refer above chart). Indeed, cable is more expensive versus 2Y rate spreads than at any point in the last five years. Fair-value currently languishes at 1.15,...

FxWirePro: Do Dutch polls really matter? Relative value in CAD/JPY and EUR/JPY ahead of European elections - Gamma spreads to factor in unforeseen risks

Mar 08, 2017 07:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

CADJPY screens extremely cheap on our 1M gamma grid while EURJPY is materially expensive (refer above chart). CADJPY EURJPY 1M ATM spreads is nearly flat (zero) on mids, whereas the close-to-close realized vol spread...

FxWirePro: EUR/JPY low IV regime - “Strangle writings” for speculators, “Vol spreads” for laggards and “Put Ratio Back Spreads” for hedgers

Mar 08, 2017 06:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The EURJPY volatility surface is currently offering very attractive opportunities, as ATM volatility is rich and 6m/1y skews are excessively priced. Here, we recommend a couple of trades taking advantage of both the...

FxWirePro: Fed’s rest of 2017 to drive dollar derivatives baskets on stimulated OIS and UST yields

Mar 07, 2017 13:25 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Yellen dropped a heavy hint last week that a rate hike was coming on the Ides of March. That too is the day of the Dutch general election, though it remains unlikely that the populist Party for Freedom will secure a...

FxWirePro: EUR/AUD lacklustre IVs imply option writers’ edge; 1m skews indicate bearish risks - Arrest asymmetric political risk via zero-cost ladder

Mar 07, 2017 06:11 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

On the back of political fears pressuring the euro, EURAUD has lost about 750 pips (about 5.12%) since the start of the year and the risk-friendly mood supporting the AUD via metals. But the pair is now testing the 1.37...

FxWirePro: EUR/PLN seems attractive carry among outright trades ahead of European political risks

Mar 06, 2017 11:50 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In 2016 we recommended a series of defensive trades into the Brexit and US election votes1 because we felt that political risks were underestimated. Going into the French elections we believe it is hard to say that...

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Economy

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs

Indias services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 14 months during March, as the ongoing Middle East conflict weighed on domestic demand and cost pressures intensified sharply, according to the latest HSBC India...

Politics

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton for California Governor

Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Steve Hilton, a Fox News host and former British government official, in Californias upcoming gubernatorial race. Announcing his endorsement on Truth Social, Trump expressed...

Iran-US Ceasefire Talks: Pakistan Brokers "Islamabad Accord" to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan is playing a central role in high-stakes diplomatic efforts to end hostilities between Iran and the United States, with a proposed peace framework now on the table that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz...

Kim Jong Un's Daughter Emerges as North Korea's Likely Successor, South Korean Intelligence Says

South Koreas National Intelligence Service (NIS) has concluded that Kim Jong Uns teenage daughter, believed to be around 13 years old and named Ju Ae, is being actively positioned as the next leader of North Korea. Unlike...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...