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FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Sterling in limbo but hard-Brexit to deliver a softer GBP over mid-term – GBP/AUD vega longs and theta shorts in 3-way straddles vs OTM call

Feb 14, 2017 08:44 am UTC| Research & Analysis

GBP has been choppy but trendless this year on a messy interplay between Brexit politics and BoE expectations. Hopes that deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off might prompt a rate hike as early as the end of...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Why and how Swiss FX impact on global terms - Short USD/CHF through 3m put spread and short in EUR/CHF via spot

Feb 13, 2017 12:05 pm UTC| Research & Analysis

EURCHF is so far tracking our forecast which assumes a softening in the SNBs intervention regime and a resultant orderly decline of around one cent per quarter in the cross to 1.03 by year-end. What has Switzerland to...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: 3-way diagonal straddles versus OTM calls to sync with EUR/USD bearish-neutral risk reversals, IV skews and trend

Feb 13, 2017 11:25 am UTC| Research & Analysis

Please be noted that the risk reversal flashes across all tenors, we see neutral changes to the bearish risk sentiments in 1m tenor but mounting bearish risk sentiments in 3m tenors, whereas Euro seems to be losing...

FxWirePro: Le Pen shock unlikely to drive EUR/USD vols – Hedge tail risk as markets pricing on dipping vols, bund calls versus swaption for delta-hedging

Feb 13, 2017 07:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Owning protection against European political discontent has been a key pillar of our bullish vol stance since late last year. Recent political developments in France and the implosion of what was considered to be a...

FxWirePro: How does Euro swap spread look ahead of French polls?

Feb 13, 2017 07:15 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

French elections is priced more appropriately in bonds (but not in currencies) than going into the Brexit and US vote. In the remote scenario of a Le Pen Presidency with supportive government and Parliament, 10Y Bunds...

FX Hedging Strategy Series

FxWirePro: Europe politics heightens risk dynamics in Eurozone, 1m skews uphold put writers advantages in 2:1 1m3m PRBS

Feb 13, 2017 05:54 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The political risks are clouded in theeuro area. The euro area economy has so far weathered political surprises in the form of the UKs referendum vote to leave the EU and the election of Donald Trump as the next US...

Moody's: China's shadow banking sector affected by tighter liquidity conditions, stricter regulatory scrutiny

Feb 13, 2017 03:00 am UTC| Research & Analysis

Moodys Investors Service says that liquidity conditions in Chinas financial system appear to be tightening. We expect that a combination of tighter liquidity conditions and stricter regulatory scrutiny on the banks...

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Economy

India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark repo rate at 5.25% this Wednesday, as policymakers carefully monitor the economic ripple effects of the ongoing Iran war. The conflict has...

Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110

Oil prices briefly surged past $110 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump escalated military and diplomatic pressure on Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening or face strikes...

Asian Currencies Waver as Dollar Holds Firm Amid Middle East Tensions

Asian currencies struggled to find clear direction on Monday as the US dollar remained resilient, with investors carefully weighing escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against emerging ceasefire diplomacy. The...

Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

The Bank of Japan has raised concerns about the potential deterioration of regional economies, citing escalating oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In its latest...

India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs

Indias services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 14 months during March, as the ongoing Middle East conflict weighed on domestic demand and cost pressures intensified sharply, according to the latest HSBC India...

Politics

Indonesia Files Genocide Case Against Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing Over Rohingya Crisis

A coalition of civil society organizations filed a landmark criminal complaint in Indonesia on Monday against Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of committing genocide against the Rohingya...

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Novorossiysk, Injuring Eight and Cutting Power Across Russia

At least eight people, including two children, were injured Monday after Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea port city. Local authorities confirmed that several residential buildings sustained...

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton for California Governor

Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Steve Hilton, a Fox News host and former British government official, in Californias upcoming gubernatorial race. Announcing his endorsement on Truth Social, Trump expressed...

Iran-US Ceasefire Talks: Pakistan Brokers "Islamabad Accord" to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan is playing a central role in high-stakes diplomatic efforts to end hostilities between Iran and the United States, with a proposed peace framework now on the table that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz...

Kim Jong Un's Daughter Emerges as North Korea's Likely Successor, South Korean Intelligence Says

South Koreas National Intelligence Service (NIS) has concluded that Kim Jong Uns teenage daughter, believed to be around 13 years old and named Ju Ae, is being actively positioned as the next leader of North Korea. Unlike...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...

OpenAI Executive Shake-Up Ahead of Anticipated 2026 IPO

OpenAI is navigating a significant leadership restructuring at one of the most pivotal moments in its history. The AI powerhouse confirmed that Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap is transitioning into a newly created...

Elon Musk Ties SpaceX IPO Access to Mandatory Grok AI Subscriptions

Elon Musk is reportedly making Grok subscriptions a prerequisite for banks and advisers involved in SpaceXs highly anticipated initial public offering. According to the New York Times, citing insiders familiar with the...

MATCH Act Targets ASML and Chinese Chipmakers in New U.S. Export Crackdown

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has unveiled the MATCH Act, a landmark piece of draft legislation designed to tighten export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. The...

Microsoft's $10 Billion Japan Investment: AI Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty Push

Microsoft is set to pour approximately $10 billion into Japan between now and 2029, channeling funds into data center expansion and artificial intelligence infrastructure to meet the countrys growing demand for data...